NAC Weekly No. 33: IMF Lifts Vietnam's 2026 Growth Forecast to 8.4%

The IMF has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Vietnam to 8.4%, well ahead of Malaysia and Thailand. The housing market is not keeping pace: average asking prices across the country are down about 15% in nine months. In the US, September inflation rose to 3.7% ahead of the Fed's meeting at the end of the month, Cyprus pushed its Schengen entry back to 2027, and Saint Vincent is aiming for the first quarter of 2027 to open a citizenship-by-investment programme.

Market pulse, week of 12–18/10/2026

Signals this week

🇻🇳 Vietnam · The IMF lifts its 2026 growth forecast to 8.4%

▲8.4%

IMF forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2026, 0.9 points above the July editionIMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026Photo: Christine und Hagen Graf, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

On 13 October the IMF released its October World Economic Outlook. As Doanh nghiệp và Tiếp thị reported on 14 October, it now expects Vietnam to grow 8.4% in 2026 and 7.5% in 2027, against 5.2% for Malaysia and 2.1% for Thailand. Average inflation is forecast at 4.7%, up from 3.3% in 2025.

For Vietnamese investors: strong growth keeps demand at home firm, but inflation near 5% erodes bank deposits faster. Income-producing property and assets priced in foreign currency are two familiar ways to hold on to purchasing power.

🇺🇸 United States · Gasoline lifts September inflation to 3.7%

▲3.7%

US consumer prices, 12 months to September, up from 3.4% in AugustBLS, 14 OctPhoto: Rick Obst, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

On 14 October the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% on a year earlier. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the month, more than half of the overall increase. Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, stood at 2.6%.

For Vietnamese investors: the Fed meets on 27–28 October with its target range at 3.75–4%. Rising headline inflation pushes rate cuts further out, even with core inflation still low. Borrowing costs in dollar-linked markets such as Dubai and Panama are therefore unlikely to ease in the next few months.

🇻🇳 Vietnam · Asking prices fall 15% in nine months

▼−15%

average asking price for homes and land nationwide, end-2025 to Q3 2026, now VND 86 million per m²Batdongsan, via VnExpress 14 OctPhoto: NKSTTSSHNVN, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Batdongsan's figures, reported by VnExpress on 14 October, show the national average asking price falling from VND 101 million per square metre at the end of 2025 to VND 86 million in Q3. Hanoi is down 14–15% and Ho Chi Minh City 5–7%. DXS-FERI counts primary sales in Q3 down 36% year on year, with floating mortgage rates reaching 13–15% a year.

For Vietnamese investors: cash buyers have the upper hand in negotiations, especially in Hanoi. Branded residences move to their own rhythm: Global Branded Residences counts 16,135 branded units in Vietnam, the third most in the world. For these, the operator and the handover date matter more than the market average.

🇨🇾 Cyprus · Schengen membership slips to 2027

▼2027

the year Cyprus now expects full Schengen membership, a year after the president's targetIMI Daily, 12 OctPhoto: dronepicr, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

As IMI Daily reported on 12 October, Deputy Migration Minister Nicholas Ioannides told CyBC radio on 10 October that Cyprus expects full Schengen membership in 2027, a year after President Nikos Christodoulides's target. The main obstacle is the Green Line that divides the island, and the EU Council has not set a vote.

For Vietnamese investors: the European Commission has not yet lifted Cyprus's internal border controls, so a Cypriot residence permit does not replace a visa for trips to other Schengen countries. Cyprus also plans tighter terms for investor residence. The current routes are in NAC's Cyprus programme guide.

🇻🇨 Saint Vincent · A citizenship programme pencilled in for Q1 2027

●Q1 2027

the launch window Prime Minister Godwin Friday floated, with caveats, for a new citizenship-by-investment programmeIMI Daily, 15 OctPhoto: giggel, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0

In an interview with Television Caribbean published on 14 October, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Godwin Friday said the country still plans a citizenship-by-investment programme, but not "in the old sense", IMI Daily reported on 15 October. It would carry heavier due diligence and be run by a government unit.

For Vietnamese investors: there is no investment amount or set of conditions yet. Regulation (EU) 2025/2441, in force since 30 December 2025, lets the EU suspend visa-free travel for countries that sell citizenship through investment, and Mr Friday did not say how a new programme would fare under it. Interested families should wait for the official rules.

Next week

NAC strategic insight

This week showed that fast growth and a cooling housing market can sit side by side. We favour income-producing assets bought with equity while borrowing stays dear, and a residence plan that allows real time for places changing their rules, such as Cyprus and the Caribbean. If you'd like to know what these changes mean for your family, book a consultation with NAC.

Related on NAC

Nobu Residences Da Nang · Mandarin Oriental Da Nang · Limassol Del Mar · Pearl Park Paphos · The NAC Residence Index

Sources

• IMF — World Economic Outlook, October 2026 (13 Oct 2026)
• Doanh nghiệp và Tiếp thị — IMF raises Vietnam's GDP growth forecast to 8.4% (14 Oct 2026, Vietnamese)
• Euronews — IMF forecasts 3.1% global growth in 2026 (13 Oct 2026)
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (14 Oct 2026)
• VnExpress — Property prices fall by up to 20% in Q3 (14 Oct 2026, Vietnamese)
• VnExpress — Home sales keep falling sharply in Q3 (13 Oct 2026, Vietnamese)
• VnExpress — Vietnam has the third most branded residences in the world (14 Oct 2026, Vietnamese)
• Báo Văn Hóa — USD exchange rate, 16 October (16 Oct 2026, Vietnamese)
• IMI Daily — Cyprus Now Expects to Join Schengen in 2027 (12 Oct 2026)
• European Commission — Schengen Area
• IMI Daily — Saint Vincent PM Eyes Q1 2027 for CBI Program (15 Oct 2026)
• EUR-Lex — Regulation (EU) 2025/2441 on the visa suspension mechanism
• NBS — 2026 release calendar · ONS — Consumer price inflation, September 2026 · ONS — Private rent and house prices, October 2026 · Türkiye Today — CBRT 2026 meeting calendar