NAC Weekly No. 25: Ho Chi Minh City Apartment Prices Up 22.5% in a Year

Apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City are up 22.5% in a year and have recovered all of their 2021–2024 decline, according to Batdongsan.com.vn data presented at a forum on 18 August. In the same week, Fed minutes showed three officials wanted to raise rates at once, house prices kept falling in London and Dubai, and the EU prepared to restrict non-EU banks serving its residents.

Market pulse, week of 17–23/8/2026

Signals this week

🇻🇳 Vietnam · Ho Chi Minh City apartment prices up 22.5% in a year

▲+22.5%

rise in Ho Chi Minh City apartment prices over the past year, enough to erase the 5–7% fall of 2021–2024Batdongsan.com.vn, via Dan Tri 19 AugPhoto: Pimnl, Wikimedia Commons, CC0

On 19 August Dan Tri reported from the Southern Real Estate Forum 2026, held the day before: according to Batdongsan.com.vn, Ho Chi Minh City apartment prices fell 5–7% between 2021 and 2024, when loan rates were 14–16%, then rose 22.5% over the past year, recovering the whole decline. In the central core, prices start at VND 200–500 million per square metre, and one project near Ben Thanh Market is reportedly priced at about VND 1 billion per square metre.

For Vietnamese investors: with prices fully recovered, the window for buying cheap in Ho Chi Minh City has closed. Per NAC's listing data, gross rental yields in the centre are about 5.5% at The One Saigon and 5.8% at Grand Marina Saigon (NAC estimates). Developers are moving from discounts to interest-rate support and loans of up to 70% of the price, so run the cash flow on the rate that applies once the support ends.

🇺🇸 United States · Three Fed officials wanted a hike in July

▲9–3

the vote to hold rates at 3.5–3.75% on 29 July; three dissenters wanted a quarter-point riseFed, minutes released 19 AugPhoto: Tony Webster, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

On 19 August the Fed released the minutes of its 28–29 July meeting. It held rates at 3.5–3.75%, but Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissented in favour of a quarter-point rise. June PCE inflation was estimated at about 3.7%. Many officials said policy tightening would likely be needed if inflation did not come down. The next meeting is on 15–16 September.

For Vietnamese investors: dollar rates are unlikely to fall this year, so borrowing in dollar-linked markets such as Dubai is unlikely to get cheaper. At home, on 21 August the State Bank set its central rate at VND 25,600 per dollar, the first time it has reached that level. Families moving money abroad to buy should budget for the cost of currency exchange.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom · London asking prices down 3.1% in a year

▼−3.1%

asking prices of newly listed London homes, year on year, August 2026Rightmove, 17 AugPhoto: Diliff, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

Rightmove's index of 17 August shows average asking prices in Britain down 2% in August to £364,999, the biggest August fall since 2018. London fell furthest, 3.1% on the year, with more homes for sale than at any time in 16 years. The average two-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.09%. Official ONS figures released on 19 August put London's average price in June at £554,000, down 2.5% on the year.

For Vietnamese investors: buyers in London have the upper hand in negotiations. Per NAC's listing data, Oval Village starts at £685,000 with an estimated gross yield of about 5.5%, and London Dock at £790,000 with about 4.7% (NAC estimates). Both complete in 2027–2028. The residence routes are in NAC's UK residence programme guide.

🇦🇪 UAE · Dubai prices fall for a fifth month in a row

▼−4.9%

Dubai sales price index from February to July 2026, after five straight monthly fallsREIDIN, via Dubai Chronicle 19 AugPhoto: Tim Reckmann, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

REIDIN's July data, published by Dubai Chronicle on 19 August, show Dubai's sales price index down 0.65% on June, its fifth monthly fall in a row, taking it from 150.21 points in February to 142.80. Prices are still 0.55% higher than a year earlier. Rents are falling faster: the rent index has lost 8.1% since February, and the gross rental yield on apartments has slipped to 6.83%.

For Vietnamese investors: when rents fall faster than prices, the yield you actually collect ends up below the figure in the sales brochure. Per NAC's listing data, DAMAC Safa Gate starts at USD 542,000 with an estimated gross yield of about 6% (NAC estimate), and is due for handover in Q4 2028. For off-plan homes, rerun the cash flow on today's rents.

🇪🇺 EU · Non-EU banks face limits on serving EU residents from 2027

●11 Jan 2027

the date Article 21c of the CRD VI directive applies across the 30 countries of the European Economic AreaIMI Daily, 21 AugPhoto: Trougnouf (Benoit Brummer), Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

As IMI Daily reported on 21 August, from 11 January 2027 Article 21c of the sixth Capital Requirements Directive (CRD VI) restricts banks from outside the EU from taking deposits, lending, including mortgages, and issuing guarantees to EU residents unless they have a branch there. The test is residence, not nationality. Contracts signed before 11 July 2026 remain valid, and clients who approach a bank entirely on their own initiative can still be served.

For Vietnamese investors: a family holding a Greek, Portuguese or Cypriot residence card that actually moves there may find non-EU banks turning down new loans or accounts. Leave existing contracts as they are, since a material change could count as new business, and open an account in advance with a bank that has an EU branch. The residence options are in NAC's guides to the Greece golden visa and the Cyprus residence programme.

Next week

NAC strategic insight

With Ho Chi Minh City apartment prices fully recovered and no sign yet of lower dollar rates, we favour buying with equity, and using the slowdown in London and Dubai to negotiate on price. Families planning to live in the EU should rearrange their banking before January 2027. If you'd like to see where your family's portfolio stands after this week, book a consultation with NAC.

Related on NAC

The One Saigon · Grand Marina Saigon · Oval Village · London Dock · DAMAC Safa Gate · The NAC Residence Index

Sources

• Dan Tri (DTiNews) — HCM City central apartment prices reach VND 1 billion per square metre (19 Aug 2026)
• Federal Reserve — Minutes of the FOMC, July 28–29, 2026 (released 19 Aug 2026) · press release (19 Aug 2026)
• Federal Reserve — Open Market Operations, target range changes
• Thoi bao Tai chinh Viet Nam — USD rate on 21 August: central rate reaches VND 25,600 for the first time (21 Aug 2026, Vietnamese)
• Rightmove — House Price Index, August 2026 (17 Aug 2026)
• GOV.UK / ONS — UK House Price Index for June 2026 (19 Aug 2026)
• Dubai Chronicle — UAE Property Prices Tell Different Stories, REIDIN July data (19 Aug 2026)
• IMI Daily — New EU Rule Bars Foreign Banks From Serving EU Residents Without a Local Branch From 2027 (21 Aug 2026)
• Tech Times — Jackson Hole 2026: What to Watch When Warsh Steps to the Podium Friday (21 Aug 2026) · Bank of Thailand — Monetary Policy Committee's Decision 4/2026