NAC Weekly No. 02: IEA Releases a Record 400 Million Barrels of Oil

On 11 March the 32 members of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency stocks, the largest release ever, yet oil stayed above USD 100 a barrel with the Strait of Hormuz all but closed. Vietnam drew on its fuel stabilisation fund to pull pump prices down, Turkey stopped cutting rates, and London came under the heaviest house-price pressure in Britain.

Market pulse, week of 9–15/3/2026

Signals this week

🌐 Oil · The IEA releases a record 400 million barrels

▲400m bbl

barrels of emergency oil the IEA's 32 members agreed to release, more than double the 2022 releaseIEA, via AP 11 MarPhoto: U.S. Navy, Wikimedia Commons, public domain

On 11 March the 32 members of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, AP reported. The previous record, in 2022, was 182.7 million barrels. The IEA said crude and product exports through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen below 10% of pre-war levels. Even so, oil stayed above USD 100 a barrel during the week, VCBF noted.

For Vietnamese investors: VCBF estimates the released oil covers only 15–27 days of lost supply if Hormuz stays shut. Prolonged high energy prices will push up inflation across most markets NAC covers. Families planning to borrow for a property abroad should assume rates stay put until mid-year.

🇻🇳 Vietnam · The stabilisation fund pulls RON95 back to VND 25,575

▼VND 4,000

fund subsidy per litre of petrol from the 10 March round; the RON95-III ceiling fell to VND 25,575 a litreMinistry of Industry and Trade, 12 MarPhoto: Christophe95, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

From the 10 March round, the ministries of Industry and Trade and of Finance began paying VND 4,000 per litre of petrol and VND 5,000 per litre of diesel out of the stabilisation fund. Per the 12 March notice, the RON95-III ceiling fell to VND 25,575, VND 1,472 below the 7 March level. At that rate the fund would last only about 15 days, VCBF reported, citing the ministry.

For Vietnamese investors: pump prices fell because of the fund, not because world prices eased, so they can rise again once it runs dry. The central rate edged up to VND 25,065 per dollar at week's end, VBMA reported. Families planning to move money abroad this year should buy their foreign currency in smaller instalments.

🇺🇸 United States · Inflation holds at 2.4% in February

●2.4%

US annual inflation in February 2026, unchanged from January; core inflation 2.5%BLS, 11 MarPhoto: Dean Hochman, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

On 11 March the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.3% in February and 2.4% on a year earlier, the same as January. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.5%. Petrol rose 0.8% on the month but was still 5.6% cheaper than a year before. The data do not yet capture the oil spike that began in early March.

For Vietnamese investors: the Fed goes into its 17–18 March meeting with mixed signals: February inflation was calm, but oil has jumped since. The target range is 3.5–3.75%. In dollar-pegged markets such as Dubai and Panama, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall in the first quarter.

🇹🇷 Turkey · The central bank holds its rate at 37%

●37%

Turkey's policy rate after the 12 March meeting; overnight lending rate 40%Central Bank of Turkey, 12 MarPhoto: Biologg, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

On 12 March the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye kept its one-week repo rate at 37%, with overnight lending at 40% and overnight borrowing at 35.5%. It cited heightened geopolitical uncertainty, weaker global risk appetite and higher energy prices, and said it would tighten further if the inflation outlook deteriorated significantly and persistently.

For Vietnamese investors: at 37%, lira mortgages are very expensive, so buyers paying in dollars from their own funds face less competition. Per NAC's programme data, the citizenship threshold is USD 400,000; Yeni Garden in Bağcılar is complete with title deeds issued and starts at USD 583,620.

🇬🇧 UK · London house prices under the most pressure

▼−40%

RICS price balance for London in February 2026: more surveyors reported falls than rises; UK-wide −12%RICS, 12 MarPhoto: King of Hearts, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

The RICS residential market survey for February, published on 12 March, put the UK house price balance at −12%, meaning more surveyors reported falling prices than rising ones. London was weakest at −40%. The new buyer enquiries balance slid to −26% from −15% in January. RICS's Tarrant Parsons said higher oil and energy prices made it more likely that mortgage rates would stay higher for longer.

For Vietnamese investors: London is a buyer's market. Per NAC's listing data, Bermondsey Place, south of the Thames, starts at GBP 499,950 with handover from Q4 2027 and an estimated 5.8% gross yield. Flat prices give buyers more time to choose a unit and to negotiate.

Next week

NAC strategic insight

This week showed that even the largest intervention on record could not bring oil down while Hormuz stays blocked. We continue to favour finished or nearly finished assets in markets where prices have stalled, such as London, and to assume rates stay higher for longer on any loan. If you'd like to see where your family's portfolio stands after this week, book a consultation with NAC.

Related on NAC

Yeni Garden Istanbul · Referans Residence Istanbul · Bermondsey Place London · Oval Village London · The NAC Residence Index

Sources

• Fortune (AP) — IEA to release record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves (11 Mar 2026)
• VCBF — Weekly macro highlights, 9–13 March 2026 (13 Mar 2026, Vietnamese)
• Vietnam Ministry of Industry and Trade — Fuel price adjustment of 12 March 2026 (12 Mar 2026, Vietnamese)
• VBMA — Weekly bond market report, 9–13 March 2026 (13 Mar 2026, Vietnamese)
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, February 2026 (11 Mar 2026)
• Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye — Press Release on Interest Rates 2026-12 (12 Mar 2026)
• RICS — UK Residential Survey February 2026 (12 Mar 2026)
• Federal Reserve — March 2026 calendar · RBA — Monetary policy decision, 17 March 2026 · Banco de España — ECB keeps interest rates unchanged in March (19 Mar 2026) · Bank of England — Monetary Policy Summary, March 2026 (19 Mar 2026)