Contents
NAC Weekly No. 16: Fed Lifts Its 2026 Inflation Forecast to 3.6%
The Fed holds but lifts its inflation forecast to 3.6%, Vietnamese mortgage rates climb 2–4 points and UK asking prices fall 0.6%. Four stories from the week.
The Fed, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia all held rates this week, and none of them hinted at a cut. The Fed went further and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6%. At home, Vietnamese mortgage rates are up 2–4 percentage points since January, while UK asking prices posted their biggest June fall in 14 years.
Market pulse, week of 15–21/6/2026
Source: Fed (17 Jun); State Bank of Vietnam via Thoi bao Ngan hang (18 Jun); VietnamFinance (17 Jun); Bank of England (18 Jun); Rightmove via Global Banking & Finance (15 Jun); RBA (16 Jun)
Signals this week
Source: NAC, compiled from the sources in this issue
🇺🇸 United States · Fed holds, lifts its inflation forecast to 3.6%
▲3.6%median 2026 PCE inflation forecast, up from 2.7% in MarchFed, 17 JunPhoto: Britt Leckman/Federal Reserve, Wikimedia Commons, public domain
On 17 June, at the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, the Fed held its target range at 3.5–3.75% in a 12–0 vote, its fourth straight hold. The statement tied elevated inflation to energy supply shocks and the conflict in the Middle East. The accompanying projections lifted 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% and put the median year-end rate at 3.8%, above the 3.4% officials pencilled in back in March.
For Vietnamese investors: the dollar is firming. Thoi bao Ngan hang reports that the DXY index closed 17 June at its highest since 31 March, and on the morning of 18 June the State Bank set its central rate at VND 25,173 per dollar. Families planning to borrow in dollar-linked markets such as Dubai or Panama should assume no rate relief this year.
🇻🇳 Vietnam · Mortgage rates up 2–4 points since January
▲+2–4 ptsrise in Vietnamese mortgage rates since the start of the year, in percentage pointsVietnamFinance, 17 JunPhoto: Vuong Tri Binh, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
According to VietnamFinance on 17 June, teaser rates now commonly run at 8–10% a year for the first 6–36 months, then float to roughly 11–15%. Vietcombank quotes 9.6% for the first six months and BIDV from 9.7%. Banks blame sharply higher funding costs, while property lending is capped this year. A first-quarter One Mount Group survey found the share of buyers "preparing to buy" fell from 11% to 6%.
For Vietnamese investors: leverage has become noticeably more expensive. One Mount advises keeping loans below 50% of a property's value and holding a reserve worth 6–12 months of repayments. Families adding an asset, at home or abroad, should lean on their own equity and on finished homes that earn rent from day one.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom · Asking prices post the biggest June fall in 14 years
▼−0.6%average UK asking price in June, the biggest June fall in 14 yearsRightmove, 15 JunPhoto: No Swan So Fine, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Rightmove's figures, released on 15 June and reported by Global Banking & Finance, show the average asking price down £2,113 to £376,191, and 0.5% lower than a year earlier. Rightmove gave three reasons: a record-hot May, uncertainty around the war in Iran and a large stock of homes for sale. On 18 June the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% by 7–2, with two members voting to raise it to 4%.
For Vietnamese investors: cash buyers have more room to negotiate. Two-year fixed mortgages still cost about 5.07%, so rent has to cover the cost of capital. Per NAC's listing data, gross yields at Berkeley's London schemes run from 4.7% at London Dock to 6.1% at Bermondsey Place.
🇦🇺 Australia · RBA holds at 4.35% after three hikes
●4.35%RBA cash rate, unchanged after three rises since JanuaryRBA, 16 JunPhoto: Donaldytong, Wikimedia Commons, public domain
On 16 June the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% after three increases this year. The Board said inflation is still too high, that dearer fuel has fed straight into prices and that inflation is likely to stay high for some time. As Broker Daily notes, annual CPI to April was 4.2%, down from 4.6% in March but still above the 2–3% target band.
For Vietnamese investors: Australian borrowing costs are unlikely to fall in the next few months, so equity-funded purchases carry less pressure than leveraged ones. Brokers say borrowers are cautious and delaying decisions, which gives buyers more time to choose. Per NAC's listing data, 640 Melbourne CBD and West Side Place sit inside Melbourne's free tram zone.
Next week
Source: Fed calendar, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
NAC strategic insight
All four markets in this issue point the same way: rates will stay higher for longer than anyone assumed in January. That is why we favour purchases funded with equity, finished homes that earn rent straight away, and using the cooler London asking market to negotiate rather than rushing to borrow. If you'd like to review how your family's borrowing is structured after this week, book a consultation with NAC.
Related on NAC
The Prince Residence · Fulham Reach Palmer House · Bermondsey Place · 640 Melbourne CBD · The NAC Residence Index
Sources
- Federal Reserve — FOMC statement (17 Jun 2026)
- Federal Reserve — Summary of Economic Projections (17 Jun 2026)
- Federal Reserve — Open Market Operations, target range changes
- Thoi bao Ngan hang — State Bank sets central rate at 25,173 dong on 18 June (18 Jun 2026, Vietnamese)
- Bnews — USD exchange rate, 18 June (18 Jun 2026, Vietnamese)
- VietnamFinance — Mortgage rates keep rising, no sign of relief (17 Jun 2026, Vietnamese)
- Global Banking & Finance — Rightmove reports biggest June house price fall in 14 years (15 Jun 2026)
- Bank of England — Monetary Policy Summary, June 2026 (18 Jun 2026)
- Reserve Bank of Australia — Statement by the Monetary Policy Board (16 Jun 2026)
- Broker Daily — RBA holds cash rate at 4.35% (16 Jun 2026)
- Federal Reserve — June 2026 calendar · BEA — Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 (scheduled 25 Jun) · ABS — Consumer Price Index, May 2026 (scheduled 24 Jun)
