NAC Weekly No. 29: The Fed Raises Rates for the First Time in 3 Years

On 16 September the Fed raised rates by a quarter point to 3.75–4%, its first hike since July 2023. At home, Vietnam's central exchange rate set a new record of 25,637 dong per dollar. The Bank of England held rates, but three members voted to raise them, and Panama lifted the minimum investment in resale homes to USD 500,000.

Market pulse, week of 14–20/9/2026

Signals this week

🇺🇸 United States · The Fed raises rates for the first time in 3 years

▲3.75–4%

Fed funds target range after the quarter-point hike on 16 September, the first rise since July 2023Fed, 16 SepPhoto: AgnosticPreachersKid, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

On 16 September the Federal Open Market Committee raised rates by a quarter point to 3.75–4% in a 12–0 vote, after three cuts in late 2025. The statement said inflation "remains elevated" even as the economy grows at a solid pace. The median projection puts the rate at 4.1% at the end of the year, implying one more hike, and 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7%.

For Vietnamese investors: higher rates keep the dollar firm, so converting dong to buy abroad is unlikely to get cheaper soon. Loans in dollar-based markets such as Panama and Dubai are unlikely to ease quickly either. Families planning to borrow should model high rates through the end of 2026.

🇻🇳 Vietnam · The central exchange rate hits a record 25,637 dong

▲25,637

State Bank central rate in dong per dollar on 18 September, above the previous peak of 25,615 set on 25 AugustState Bank of Vietnam, 18 SepPhoto: Adam Eales, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0

On 15 September the State Bank of Vietnam lifted its central rate to 25,617 dong per dollar, then to 25,626 on 16 September, Nguoi Quan Sat reported. By the end of the week it stood at 25,637. According to Tap chi Kinh te Tai chinh, the rate was up 505 dong, about 2%, on the start of the year as of 16 September.

For Vietnamese investors: in dong terms, every dollar spent on an asset abroad now costs about 2% more than in January. Meanwhile, some banks quote 7–7.5% a year on 12-month savings deposits. Families with an overseas purchase already planned can convert in stages rather than all at once.

🇵🇦 Panama · Resale homes now need USD 500,000 to qualify for residency

▲USD 500k

minimum resale-property investment for investor permanent residency; new homes bought from the developer stay at USD 300,000Decree 17, IMI Daily 17 SepPhoto: George Lou, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

Executive Decree No. 17, gazetted on 16 September and in force at once, replaces the 2020 Qualified Investor framework, IMI Daily reported on 17 September. A first purchase from a developer still qualifies at USD 300,000, while a resale property now needs USD 500,000. For the first time, the decree also opens a path to citizenship after five consecutive years of residence.

For Vietnamese investors: confirm whether a unit counts as a first sale or a resale before committing, because the gap is USD 200,000. Off-plan homes still qualify at USD 300,000, but the money must go through a trust, or be paid to the developer in full against a bank guarantee. Contracts signed before the decree keep the old minimum if the file goes in within six months. More in NAC's Panama programme guide.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom · The Bank of England holds at 3.75%, three members want a hike

●3.75%

Bank Rate after the decision announced on 17 September, by a 6–3 voteBank of England, 17 SepPhoto: Diliff, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

On 17 September the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% by six votes to three. Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill wanted a rise to 4%. Inflation rose to 3.1% in August, and the Bank expects it to reach about 3.75% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, mainly because of energy prices.

For Vietnamese investors: sterling mortgage rates are unlikely to fall in the next few months, so rental yield is the number to check first. Per NAC's listing data, estimated gross yields run from 4.7% at London Dock to 5.8% at Bermondsey Place, two developments under construction with handovers from 2027.

🌐 Caribbean · Five citizenship-by-investment states plan a mission to Brussels

▼1 Jun 2028

the date by which the EU has asked Antigua and Barbuda to end its citizenship-by-investment programmeIMI Daily, 12 SepPhoto: Martin Falbisoner, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

On 12 September, two days before this week, Dominica's Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit said he wants an Eastern Caribbean delegation in Brussels "towards the end of September", IMI Daily reported. In a June letter, the European Commission asked Antigua and Barbuda to end its programme by 1 June 2028. Since late 2025, the EU can suspend Schengen visa-free access for countries that run investor citizenship schemes.

For Vietnamese investors: for many families, the main value of a Caribbean passport is visa-free travel to Schengen, and that is exactly what is now being negotiated. The Commission's next visa suspension report is expected in December. Families weighing the Antigua and Barbuda programme should watch how this mission ends.

Next week

NAC strategic insight

This week suggests that borrowing in dollars and sterling will not get cheaper soon, while the rules in Panama and the Caribbean are tightening. We favour converting currency in stages, buying with equity rather than debt, and locking in residence files once the conditions are clear. If you'd like to know what your family's plan should change after this week, book a consultation with NAC.

Related on NAC

Santa Maria Panama · Pullman Panama City · Bermondsey Place · London Dock · The NAC Residence Index

Sources

• Federal Reserve — FOMC statement (16 Sep 2026)
• Federal Reserve — Summary of Economic Projections (16 Sep 2026)
• Federal Reserve — Open Market Operations, target range changes (updated Sep 2026)
• Nguoi Quan Sat — Exchange rate, 16 September: the central rate sets a new record (16 Sep 2026, Vietnamese)
• Tap chi Kinh te Tai chinh — Interest and exchange rates today: the central rate at a new high (16 Sep 2026, Vietnamese)
• Doanh nghiep va Hoi nhap — USD exchange rate, 19 September (19 Sep 2026, Vietnamese) · Tygiausd.org — USD/VND on 21 September, with the 18 September central rate (21 Sep 2026, Vietnamese)
• IMI Daily — Panama Sets US$500,000 Minimum for Resale Property, Keeps New Developments at US$300,000 (17 Sep 2026)
• Bank of England — Monetary Policy Summary, September 2026 (17 Sep 2026)
• IMI Daily — Caribbean Five Plan Mission to Brussels "Towards End of September" (12 Sep 2026)
• Federal Reserve — September 2026 calendar