NAC Quarterly Q3 2026: The Quarter Interest Rates Turned Back Up

Lãi suất Fed (mức trần)4,00%▲ 0,25 điểm trong quýTỷ giá trung tâm25.627 đồng/USD▲ 1,7% trong quýGDP Việt Nam, quý III9,95%▲ cao nhất từ đầu nămGiao dịch nhà ở Dubai, quý III72,6 tỷ AED▼ 47% so với cùng kỳGiá nhà Úc, 3 tháng−2,7%▼ giảm 3 tháng liên tiếpHợp đồng mua BĐS Síp, quý III4.962▲ 9 tháng tăng 14%Lãi suất Fed (mức trần)4,00%▲ 0,25 điểm trong quýTỷ giá trung tâm25.627 đồng/USD▲ 1,7% trong quýGDP Việt Nam, quý III9,95%▲ cao nhất từ đầu nămGiao dịch nhà ở Dubai, quý III72,6 tỷ AED▼ 47% so với cùng kỳGiá nhà Úc, 3 tháng−2,7%▼ giảm 3 tháng liên tiếpHợp đồng mua BĐS Síp, quý III4.962▲ 9 tháng tăng 14%

Fed funds rate (upper bound)4.00%▲ 0.25 pt in the quarterCentral exchange rate25,627 VND/USD▲ 1.7% in the quarterVietnam GDP, Q39.95%▲ fastest this yearDubai home sales, Q3AED 72.6bn▼ 47% year on yearAustralian home prices, 3 months−2.7%▼ three monthly falls in a rowCyprus property sales, Q34,962▲ nine months up 14%Fed funds rate (upper bound)4.00%▲ 0.25 pt in the quarterCentral exchange rate25,627 VND/USD▲ 1.7% in the quarterVietnam GDP, Q39.95%▲ fastest this yearDubai home sales, Q3AED 72.6bn▼ 47% year on yearAustralian home prices, 3 months−2.7%▼ three monthly falls in a rowCyprus property sales, Q34,962▲ nine months up 14%

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Contents

NAC Quarterly Q3 2026: The Quarter Interest Rates Turned Back Up

The Fed hiked for the first time in three years, Dubai home sales fell 47% and Vietnam grew 9.95%. Thirteen weeks, tracked month by month.

Q3 2026 was the quarter interest rates turned back up. The Fed hiked for the first time in three years, the ECB and Australia hiked too, and Vietnam's central exchange rate kept setting records around 25,640 dong per US dollar. Housing split in two: Dubai, Australia and the UK cooled, while Cyprus and Vietnamese condos kept rising. Residency-by-investment routes narrowed in Greece, Cyprus, Panama and the Caribbean.

Q3 2026 in six numbers

Fed funds rate (upper bound)4.00%▲ 0.25 pt in the quarterFirst hike since July 2023, on 16/9

Central exchange rate25,627 VND/USD▲ 1.7% in the quarterState Bank of Vietnam, 30/9

Vietnam GDP, Q39.95%▲ fastest this yearGeneral Statistics Office, 3/10

Dubai home sales, Q3AED 72.6bn▼ 47% year on yearCavendish Maxwell

Australian home prices, 3 months−2.7%▼ three monthly falls in a rowCotality; compounded by NAC

Cyprus property sales, Q34,962▲ nine months up 14%Department of Lands and Surveys

Source: Fed (16/9); State Bank of Vietnam; GSO via VietnamPlus (3/10); Cavendish Maxwell via The National (7/10); Cotality via Trading Economics (2/8, 31/8, 30/9); Cyprus Mail (4/8, 8/9, 7/10)

13 weeks, 13 issues

Every Friday this quarter, NAC Weekly logged what moved. Side by side, the 13 issues show the quarter's story shifting from house prices to interest rates, and then to residency rules.

JulyVietnamese condo prices up, sales down; the dong hits a record low

No. 196–12/7🇻🇳 HCMC new-condo prices up 16% in a year No. 2013–19/7🇻🇳 New-condo sales fall 62% in the first half No. 2120–26/7🇻🇳 Developers offer up to 60 months' principal grace No. 2227/7–2/8🇻🇳 Central exchange rate hits a record 25,320 dong

AugustUS jobs drop, then rebound; Vietnamese mortgage rates reach 10.9%

No. 233–9/8🇨🇾 Cyprus logs 2,040 property sales in July, a 2026 high No. 2410–16/8🇻🇳 Hanoi new-condo prices up 36% in a year No. 2517–23/8🇻🇳 HCMC condo prices up 22.5% in a year No. 2624–30/8🇻🇳 Average fixed mortgage rate rises to 10.9%No. 2731/8–6/9🇺🇸 US adds 162,000 jobs in August

SeptemberThe Fed, ECB and Australia all hike; Greece, Panama and Cyprus tighten residency

No. 287–13/9🇬🇷 Greece moves to raise the buyer tax to 15% for non-EU buyers No. 2914–20/9🇺🇸 The Fed hikes for the first time in three years No. 3021–27/9🇺🇸 US 30-year mortgage rate tops 7%No. 3128/9–4/10🇻🇳 Vietnam's Q3 GDP grows 9.95%

Source: NAC Weekly, No. 19–31

Month by month: rates, inflation, the dong

June is the baseline. Each cell is that month's level with its change on the month before; the last column is the quarter's net move.

JunJulAugSepQuarter

Policy rates

Fed funds, upper bound%Jun3.75Jul3.75● ±0 ptAug3.75● ±0 ptSep4.00▲ +0.25 ptQuarter▲ +0.25 pt

ECB deposit rate%Jun2.25Jul2.25● ±0 ptAug2.25● ±0 ptSep2.50▲ +0.25 ptQuarter▲ +0.25 pt

Bank of England%Jun3.75Jul3.75● ±0 ptAug3.75● ±0 ptSep3.75● ±0 ptQuarter● ±0 pt

Reserve Bank of Australia%Jun4.35Jul4.35● ±0 ptAug4.35● ±0 ptSep4.60▲ +0.25 ptQuarter▲ +0.25 pt

Turkey, one-week repo%Jun37Jul37● ±0 ptAug37● ±0 ptSep37● ±0 ptQuarter● ±0 pt

Thailand%Jun1.00Jul1.00● ±0 ptAug1.00● ±0 ptSep1.00● ±0 ptQuarter● ±0 pt

Malaysia (OPR)%Jun2.75Jul2.75● ±0 ptAug2.75● ±0 ptSep2.75● ±0 ptQuarter● ±0 pt

Inflation, year on year

Vietnam%Jun4.69Jul4.45▼ −0.24 ptAug4.89▲ +0.44 ptSep5.08▲ +0.19 ptQuarter▲ +0.39 pt

United States (CPI)%September due 14/10Jun3.5Jul3.4▼ −0.1 ptAug3.4● ±0 ptSep—Quarter▼ −0.1 pt

Turkey%September: first reading under 30% since 11/2021Jun32.11Jul31.75▼ −0.36 ptAug31.51▼ −0.24 ptSep29.73▼ −1.78 ptQuarter▼ −2.38 pt

Currency, credit and assets

Central exchange rateVND/USD, month-endJun25,206Jul25,320▲ +0.5%Aug25,610▲ +1.1%Sep25,627▲ +0.1%Quarter▲ +1.7%

US 30-year mortgage rate%, Freddie Mac, last week of month7.40% by 8/10Jun6.49Jul6.66▲ +0.17 ptAug6.66● ±0 ptSep7.03▲ +0.37 ptQuarter▲ +0.54 pt

SJC gold, sell pricemillion VND per tael, month-endJun147.0Jul141.9▼ −3.5%Aug148.7▲ +4.8%Sep144.1▼ −3.1%Quarter▼ −2.0%

Brent crudeUS$ per barrel, month-endJun70.46Jul96.95▲ +38%Aug89.75▼ −7.4%Sep115.91▲ +29%Quarter▲ +65%

each month: level, then its change on the month beforeΣthe quarter's net move

Source: Fed; ECB; Bank of England; RBA; Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye; Bank of Thailand (26/8); Bank Negara Malaysia; GSO via Báo Đấu thầu (3/7), VnEconomy (3/8, 3/9) and VietnamPlus (3/10); BLS; TurkStat; State Bank of Vietnam via VOV (30/6), tygiausd.org (31/7, 30/9), Doanh nghiệp và Hội nhập (31/8); Freddie Mac via FRED; SJC via webgia.com; EIA via FRED

The central exchange rate over 13 weeks

Central exchange rate, dong per US dollarOne reading per week, from 30/6 to 30/9

Breaks its all-time highCrosses 25,600Quarter high: 25,64125,20625,627

30/631/721/830/9

Source: State Bank of Vietnam, via VOV, Thoi bao Tai chinh Viet Nam, Thanh Nien, Nguoi Quan Sat, tygiausd.org and Doanh nghiep va Hoi nhap; NAC Weekly No. 19–31

Month by month: housing markets

JunJulAugSepQuarter

Prices

Australian home prices, monthly change%, CotalityQuarter compounded by NACJun−0.4%Jul−0.7%Aug−0.9%Sep−1.1%Quarter▼ −2.7%

Sydney home prices, monthly change%, CotalityJun—Jul−1.4%Aug−1.4%Sep−1.4%Quarter▼ −4.1%

UK house prices, year on year%, NationwideJun2.2Jul1.8▼ −0.4 ptAug1.6▼ −0.2 ptSep0.8▼ −0.8 ptQuarter▼ −1.4 pt

UK asking pricesGBP, RightmoveJun376,191Jul372,359▼ −1.0%Aug364,999▼ −2.0%Sep367,440▲ +0.7%Quarter▼ −2.3%

Sales

Cyprus property sales contractscontractsAugust and September up 10% and 13% year on yearJun—Jul2,040Aug1,241▼ −39%Sep1,681▲ +35%Quarter▲ 4,962 contracts

Homes sold to foreigners, Turkeyunits, TÜİKSeptember due mid-OctoberJun2,015Jul2,120▲ +5.2%Aug1,938▼ −8.6%Sep—Quarter▼ −3.8%

each month: level, then its change on the month beforeΣthe quarter's net move

Source: Cotality via Trading Economics (2/8, 31/8, 30/9); Nationwide; Rightmove (15/6, 21/7, 17/8, 21/9); Department of Lands and Surveys via Cyprus Mail (4/8, 8/9, 7/10); TÜİK via Türkiye Today (17/7), A News (13/8), Ensonhaber (17/9)

The signal map, month by month

JulyAugustSeptember

🇻🇳 VietnamJulyNew-condo sales down 62%AugustHCMC condo prices up 22.5%SeptemberCondo prices up 8.4% this year

🇻🇳 Dong per dollarJulyRecord high at 25,320AugustCrosses 25,600 for the first timeSeptemberNew record at 25,641

🇺🇸 United StatesJulyFed holds, three vote to hikeAugustInflation steady at 3.4%SeptemberFed hikes to 4%

🇪🇺 Euro areaJulyECB holds at 2.25%August—SeptemberECB hikes to 2.50%

🇬🇧 United KingdomJulyAsking prices down 1%AugustAsking prices down 2%SeptemberAnnual price growth slows to 0.8%

🇦🇺 AustraliaJulyHome prices down 0.7%AugustHome prices down 0.9%SeptemberRBA hikes to 4.60%

🇦🇪 DubaiJuly66,000 golden visas in six monthsAugustHome sales value down 46.5%SeptemberFirst annual price fall since 2021

🇨🇾 CyprusJulyOver 10,000 sales in six monthsAugustJuly sales a 2026 highSeptember12,000 residence permits under review

🇬🇷 GreeceJuly—AugustNew golden visa files down 39%September15% buyer tax proposed

🇹🇷 TurkeyJulySales to foreigners up 20%AugustForeigners buy 2,120 homesSeptemberInflation eases to 31.51%

🇵🇦 PanamaJuly—AugustCapital-based visas down 41%SeptemberResale homes now need US$500,000

🇰🇳 Caribbean (CBI)JulyEU sets June 2028 end dateAugustSaint Lucia refuses 13.5% of filesSeptemberEU meeting, deadline unchanged

▲rising▼falling●steady / watch

Source: NAC, compiled from NAC Weekly No. 19–31; each cell sits in the month the news was published

🇺🇸 United States · The Fed reverses course with its first hike in three years

The quarter opened with a hold on 29/7 that drew three dissents in favour of a hike, and closed with a 0.25-point increase on 16/9. In between, inflation sat at 3.4% in both July and August while the job market lurched: payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, rose by 162,000 in August and added only 29,000 in September. The Fed's median projection points to one more hike before year-end, and Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate crossed 7% on 24/9, the first time in 20 months.

For Vietnamese investors: a dearer dollar lifts the cost of money in every dollar-pegged market, from Dubai to Panama. Families planning to borrow for a home abroad should rerun their cash flow with rates at least 0.25 points higher than at the start of the quarter.

🇻🇳 Vietnam · The dong keeps hitting records as mortgage rates reach 10.9%

The central exchange rate broke its all-time high on 28/7, crossed 25,600 dong for the first time on 21/8 and set a fresh record of 25,641 on 25/9. Inflation climbed from 4.69% in June to 5.08% in September as Brent crude rose about 65% over the quarter, and the average fixed mortgage rate across 11 banks reached 10.9% in August, according to DKRA. Even so, GDP grew 9.95% in Q3, the fastest pace this year.

For Vietnamese investors: a weaker dong gives a clear reason to hold part of a family's wealth in foreign currency as a buffer. For buyers at home, a 10.9% mortgage makes long loans markedly dearer than at the start of the year.

🇻🇳 Vietnam · Condo prices keep rising even as sales slow

Q3 opened with news that new-condo sales in the first half fell 62% from the second half of 2025, according to DXS-FERI, and that several developers were offering up to 60 months' grace on principal to revive demand. Prices did not follow: HCMC condos rose 22.5% in a year according to Batdongsan.com.vn, Hanoi new condos rose 36% in Q2 according to Cushman & Wakefield, and Knight Frank put HCMC's Q3 new-condo price at US$4,210 per m².

For Vietnamese investors: with prices up fast and sales slowing, rental yield and delivery dates matter more than hopes of further gains. Projects that are handed over, or close to it, cut the waiting risk.

🇦🇪 UAE · Dubai home sales value falls 47% in Q3

The value of Dubai home sales had already slipped 15.7% in the first half. Q3 was far weaker: August fell 46.5% year on year according to Projectory, and the full quarter fell 47% according to Cavendish Maxwell. Cavendish Maxwell also found August prices 1.7% below a year earlier, the first annual fall since February 2021. Residency demand has held up: Dubai issued about 66,000 golden visas in the first six months.

For Vietnamese investors: buyers have more room to negotiate than in 2025, but dollar-pegged borrowing costs are still rising. Paying in cash and choosing already-tenanted units is the safer route for now.

🇬🇷 Greece · Europe's golden visa door narrows

New Greek golden visa applications fell 39% in the first seven months to 3,086, and in September Athens proposed raising the transfer tax for non-EU buyers from 3% to 15%. The same month, Cyprus said it was reviewing about 12,000 investor residence permits issued since 2013, even as Cyprus logged 14,969 property sales in nine months, up 14%. Just after the quarter, Portugal said it had processed only 6,000 of 46,000 pending files.

For Vietnamese investors: Europe has not shut, but both cost and waiting time are rising. Families already weighing an application should file before new rules take effect, and budget for the new tax in the total cost.

🇦🇺 Australia · Three months of falling prices, and the RBA still hikes

Cotality's national home value index fell 0.7% in July, 0.9% in August and 1.1% in September, about 2.7% over the quarter on NAC's compounded count. Sydney fell 1.4% every month. The Reserve Bank of Australia still raised its cash rate to 4.60% on 29/9, because inflation is not yet back to target.

For Vietnamese investors: Australian prices are adjusting while borrowing costs keep rising. Buyers of new apartments to rent out may find better prices in Q4, but should model cash flow at a higher rate than today's.

🇰🇳 Caribbean · The EU keeps its CBI deadline, and Panama raises the resale bar

Early in the quarter, the EU wrote to Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Lucia asking them to end citizenship by investment by 1/6/2028. The leaders of Antigua and Saint Lucia met the EU commissioner on 24/9, and the deadline did not move. In Panama, Decree 17, published on 16/9, raised the minimum for resale property to US$500,000, while new homes bought from developers stay at US$300,000.

For Vietnamese investors: Caribbean passports remain available for about 20 more months, but ask hard questions about Schengen visa-free access after 2028. In Panama, a new home from a developer still qualifies at the US$300,000 level.

What to watch in Q4

Tue–Wed27–28/10Fed meets after the September hike

Thu29/10ECB meets, rate at 2.50%

Tue3/11Reserve Bank of Australia meets

Thu5/11Bank of England meets

Sun29/11Spain's snap general election

Tue–Wed8–9/12Fed's last meeting of the year

Thu17/12ECB and Bank of England meet

Source: 2026 meeting calendars of the Fed, ECB, RBA and Bank of England; Euronews (5/10)

NAC strategic insight

Q3 closed the chapter of cheap money. With dollar, euro and Australian dollar rates all rising, we favour assets that are handed over or close to it, bought with equity rather than debt, and residency files lodged before Europe's new rules take effect. If you want to see where your family's portfolio stands after these 13 weeks, book a consultation with NAC.

Markets in this quarterlyVietnam, Dubai and Greece were the three biggest stories of Q3