NAC Weekly No. 07: IMF Cuts Its 2026 World Growth Forecast to 3.1%

On 14 April the IMF cut its 2026 world growth forecast to 3.1% because of the war in the Middle East, while still expecting Vietnam's economy to grow 7.1%. Three days later Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open and Brent crude fell more than 10% in a single session. At home, Vietnam's environment tax on fuel dropped to zero from 16 April; abroad, Singapore tightened policy, euro-area inflation rose to 2.6% and foreign home purchases in Turkey fell 20%.

Market pulse, week of 13–19/4/2026

Signals this week

🌐 Global · The IMF cuts its 2026 growth forecast to 3.1%

▼3.1%

IMF forecast for world growth in 2026, 0.2 points below its January projectionIMF, World Economic Outlook 14 AprPhoto: International Monetary Fund, Wikimedia Commons, public domain

On 14 April the IMF published its April World Economic Outlook, titled "Global Economy in the Shadow of War". It expects the world economy to grow 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, assuming the conflict lasts only a few more weeks. Its statistical tables assume an average oil price of about USD 82 a barrel this year, up from USD 67.74 in 2025, and cut UAE growth to 3.1% from 5.8%.

For Vietnamese investors: the IMF still sees Vietnam growing 7.1% this year, but with inflation rising to about 4.9% from 3.3% in 2025. As the dong loses purchasing power faster, holding part of the family's wealth in foreign currency, such as rental property abroad, spreads the risk instead of keeping everything in one currency.

🇻🇳 Vietnam · The environment tax on fuel drops to zero until 30 June

▼VND 0

environment protection tax per litre of petrol and oil from 16 April to 30 June 2026Resolution 19/2026/QH16, via Tạp chí Công Thương 16 AprPhoto: Diane Selwyn, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

From midnight on 16 April, under National Assembly Resolution 19/2026/QH16 of 12 April, the environment protection tax on petrol, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil and jet fuel fell to zero, and the special consumption tax on petrol to 0%, Tạp chí Công Thương reported. In the same day's price review, diesel fell VND 1,928 to a cap of VND 31,041 a litre, while RON95-III petrol rose VND 218 to VND 23,761 on higher world prices.

For Vietnamese investors: the tax cut slows transport costs in the second quarter, but only until 30 June. Diesel still costs about VND 7,300 a litre more than petrol, and dear energy can feed into building-material prices. Buyers of off-plan apartments should check any price-adjustment clauses in their contracts.

🇸🇬 Singapore · MAS lets the Singapore dollar rise faster to curb imported inflation

▲1.5–2.5%

Singapore's 2026 inflation forecast, raised from 1–2%MAS, 14 AprPhoto: Matti Blume, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

On 14 April the Monetary Authority of Singapore slightly raised the rate of appreciation of its currency policy band, leaving the band's width and centre unchanged. MAS said shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely constrained since late February, pushing up the price of oil, gas and chemicals. First-quarter GDP grew 4.6% year on year but shrank 0.3% on the quarter.

For Vietnamese investors: a stronger Singapore dollar makes Singapore assets dearer in dong terms but protects the value of what owners already hold. MAS also noted slower rent growth, so rental yields are unlikely to improve in the near term.

🇪🇺 Euro area · March inflation rises to 2.6%, with Greece and Spain at 3.4%

▲2.6%

euro-area inflation in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February; energy up 5.1% on a year earlierEurostat, 16 AprPhoto: athenswalk, Wikimedia Commons, CC0

Eurostat reported on 16 April that euro-area inflation rose to 2.6% in March from 1.9%, driven by energy prices, which were up 5.1% on a year earlier after falling 3.1% in February. Greece and Spain both stood at 3.4%, Portugal at 2.7%, Malta at 2.3% and Cyprus at 1.5%.

For Vietnamese investors: rising inflation makes an ECB rate cut less likely this year, so euro loans for a home in Greece or Cyprus are unlikely to get cheaper. Per NAC's listing data, The One in Glyfada and Boulevard in Kallithea, Athens, start at EUR 281,000 and EUR 264,000, and both complete in 2026.

🇹🇷 Turkey · Foreign home purchases fall 20% in March

▼−20%

homes sold to foreigners in March 2026 versus a year earlier, down to 1,353TurkStat, via Alo Maliye 17 AprPhoto: Sakhalinio, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

TurkStat data, reported by Alo Maliye on 17 April, show 113,367 homes sold nationwide in March, down 2.1% on a year earlier, while mortgaged sales jumped 35.9% to 25,978. Foreigners bought 1,353 homes, down 20% and just 1.2% of the total. Russians bought the most, with 229, followed by Iranians and Germans.

For Vietnamese investors: fewer foreign buyers give newcomers more time to choose and negotiate. Per NAC's programme data, the property route to Turkish citizenship starts at USD 400,000, held for three years. Referans Residence in Istanbul is complete and starts at USD 400,000; W Suite Istanbul is due in Q4 2026 from USD 572,300.

Next week

NAC strategic insight

This week showed that oil can reverse on a single statement, so an investment plan should not rest on one scenario. We favour assets that are finished or close to handover, priced in strong currencies, with a payment schedule that can absorb a few months of volatility. If you'd like to see how this week affects your family's portfolio, book a consultation with NAC.

Related on NAC

Referans Residence Istanbul · W Suite Istanbul · The One Glyfada · Boulevard Kallithea · The NAC Residence Index

Sources

• IMF — World Economic Outlook, April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War (14 Apr 2026)
• IMF — World Economic Outlook, April 2026, Chapter 1 and statistical tables (14 Apr 2026)
• BusinessDay — Oil prices plunge as Iran says Strait of Hormuz open (17 Apr 2026)
• VBMA — Weekly money and bond market report, 13–17 April 2026 (17 Apr 2026, Vietnamese)
• Tạp chí Công Thương — Fuel price review of 16 April (16 Apr 2026, Vietnamese)
• MAS — Monetary Policy Statement, April 2026 (14 Apr 2026)
• Eurostat — Annual inflation up to 2.6% in the euro area (16 Apr 2026)
• Alo Maliye — Housing sales statistics, March 2026 (17 Apr 2026, Turkish)
• US Census Bureau — Retail sales release schedule · ONS — Consumer price inflation, UK: March 2026 release · Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye — Press release on interest rates 2026-17