NAC Weekly No. 12: UK Inflation Eases to 2.8% in April

UK inflation fell to 2.8% in April while London house prices slipped 2.1% over a year, giving buyers more room to negotiate. Minutes from the Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia showed rates could still rise, and Kevin Warsh formally became Fed chair on 22 May. Thailand's economy grew faster than expected.

Market pulse, week of 18–24/5/2026

Signals this week

🇬🇧 UK · Inflation eases to 2.8%, London prices fall 2.1%

▼2.8%

UK consumer price inflation in April 2026, year on year, down from 3.3% in March; core inflation 2.5%ONS, 20 MayPhoto: Ashley Pomeroy, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

On 20 May the Office for National Statistics reported that inflation fell to 2.8% in April from 3.3%, with core inflation down to 2.5%. Electricity prices dropped 8.4% after Ofgem lowered the energy price cap, although motor fuel was still up 23% on a year earlier. The same day the ONS said London house prices fell 2.1% in the 12 months to March, while London rents rose 2% to £2,290 a month.

For Vietnamese investors: lower inflation may ease the pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates, while London prices are slipping and rents keep rising. Buyers have more room to negotiate. Per NAC's listing data, The Halo at Oval Village in Kennington starts at £685,000, with handover expected during 2028 and an estimated gross yield of 5.5%.

🇺🇸 United States · Warsh sworn in as Fed minutes lean towards a hike

●3.5–3.75%

Fed funds target range, held at the 28–29 April meeting; most officials said a hike may be needed if inflation persistsFed, minutes released 20 MayPhoto: Don Ramey Logan, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

On 20 May the Fed released the minutes of its 28–29 April meeting: rates were held on an 8–4 vote, and March PCE inflation was estimated at 3.5% on higher energy prices. A majority of officials said some firming would likely become appropriate if inflation kept running above 2%. On 22 May Kevin Warsh took the oath as Fed chair, for a term running to May 2030.

For Vietnamese investors: borrowing costs in dollar-pegged markets such as Dubai and Panama are unlikely to ease in the coming months. On 22 May the State Bank held its central rate at 25,135 dong per dollar, while the dollar index rose to 99.19. Per NAC's listing data, Pullman Panama City is operating, from USD 320,000, with an estimated gross yield of 7.1%.

🇦🇺 Australia · RBA minutes show housing has already softened

▲4.8%

the peak in headline inflation the RBA expects in the June quarter of 2026; the cash rate is 4.35% after three rises this yearRBA, minutes released 19 MayPhoto: Sardaka, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

On 19 May the Reserve Bank of Australia published the minutes of its 4–5 May meeting: eight of nine members voted to lift the cash rate to 4.35%, after rises in February and March. Staff expect headline inflation to peak at 4.8% in the June quarter. The minutes say the first effects of higher rates would show in the established housing market, where conditions had already softened.

For Vietnamese investors: the RBA's baseline assumes another 0.6 percentage points of rises by the end of 2026, so Australian borrowers face higher repayments. Equity buyers are in the stronger position. Per NAC's listing data, Natura Macquarie Park in Sydney was completed in 2025 and starts at AUD 1.23 million, with an estimated gross yield of 4.6%.

🇹🇭 Thailand · Q1 GDP grows 2.8%, ahead of forecasts

▲+2.8%

Thailand's GDP in Q1 2026, year on year, above the 2.2% analysts expectedNESDC, via New Straits Times 18 MayPhoto: OPK-Photography, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

On 18 May Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council said GDP grew 2.8% on a year earlier in the first quarter and 0.7% on the previous quarter, according to Reuters, carried by the New Straits Times. That beat the 2.2% median in a Reuters poll. The NESDC kept its full-year growth forecast at 1.5–2.5% and raised its export forecast to 9.6%.

For Vietnamese investors: faster-than-expected growth is a good sign for rental demand in Bangkok. Per NAC's listing data, Ideo Sukhumvit-Rama 4, near BTS Phra Khanong, is completed and starts at USD 131,000, with an estimated gross yield of 5%. Long-term residence options are in NAC's Thailand LTR programme guide.

Next week

NAC strategic insight

This week UK inflation came down, while the Fed and RBA minutes showed rates could still go up. In London, prices are falling and rents are still rising, so we favour homes that are finished or close to handover, bought with equity. Also this week, the Portuguese nationality law NAC covered in No. 10 took effect on 19 May. If you'd like to revisit your family's plan after this week, book a consultation with NAC.

Related on NAC

Oval Village The Halo · London Dock Jade Wharf · Natura Macquarie Park · Ideo Sukhumvit-Rama 4 · Pullman Panama City · The NAC Residence Index

Sources

• ONS — Consumer price inflation, UK: April 2026 (20 May 2026)
• ONS — Private rent and house prices, UK: May 2026 (20 May 2026)
• Federal Reserve — Minutes of the FOMC, April 28–29, 2026 (released 20 May 2026)
• Federal Reserve — Kevin Warsh takes oath of office as Chairman (22 May 2026)
• Doanh nghiệp Hội nhập — USD exchange rate, 22 May (22 May 2026, Vietnamese)
• Reserve Bank of Australia — Minutes of the Monetary Policy Board meeting, 5 May 2026 (released 19 May 2026)
• New Straits Times (Reuters) — Thai Q1 GDP grows 2.8pct y/y, above forecast (18 May 2026)
• CMS — Key amendments to the Portuguese Nationality Law, Organic Law no. 1/2026 (18 May 2026)
• Federal Reserve — May 2026 calendar · GOV.UK — Bank holidays · ABS — CPI rose 4.2% in the year to April 2026 (27 May 2026) · ECB — Decision to publish the Financial Stability Review on 27 May 2026 · BEA — Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 (28 May 2026)