NAC Weekly No. 19: Ho Chi Minh City New-Condo Prices Up 16% in a Year

New-condo prices in Ho Chi Minh City are up 16% in a year, to about VND 76 million per square metre, according to CBRE. Cyprus passed 10,000 property sales in a first half for the first time, while the value of Dubai home sales fell 15.7%. The Fed's minutes show no clear path to lower dollar rates, and Malaysia held its policy rate at 2.75%.

Market pulse, week of 6–12/7/2026

Signals this week

🇻🇳 Vietnam · Ho Chi Minh City new-condo prices up 16% in a year

▲+16%

average primary apartment price in Ho Chi Minh City (post-merger), year on year, Q2 2026CBRE, via VOH 8 JulPhoto: lumoplank, Wikimedia Commons, CC0

CBRE Vietnam's Q2 2026 report, presented on 7 July and covered by VOH on 8 July, puts the average primary apartment price in the enlarged Ho Chi Minh City at about VND 76 million per square metre of net floor area, before VAT and maintenance fees, 8% up on the quarter. Resale prices reached about VND 62 million per square metre, 26% higher than a year earlier. Nearly 6,600 new units were launched, up 20%, and the former Binh Duong province supplied almost 80% of them.

For Vietnamese investors: buyers are more careful with debt. "Most buyers now put financial safety first and avoid excessive leverage," said Duong Thuy Dung, executive director of research and advisory at CBRE Vietnam. Per NAC's listing data, The Sycamore in Binh Duong starts from USD 118,000 with an estimated gross rental yield of 5%, against 5.8% at Grand Marina Saigon in the city centre.

🇺🇸 United States · Fed minutes show officials split on rates

▲4.1%

May PCE inflation as estimated by Fed staff, against a 2% targetFed, minutes released 8 JulPhoto: Federal Reserve, Wikimedia Commons, public domain

On 8 July the Fed released the minutes of its 16–17 June meeting, where it held the target range at 3.50–3.75% in a 12–0 vote. A few officials said there was already a case for raising rates. Many saw the right year-end level within or slightly below the current range, but many others saw it above. Staff estimated that PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May, and officials named energy costs and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as sources of price pressure.

For Vietnamese investors: borrowing costs in dollar-linked markets such as Dubai and Panama are unlikely to ease soon. According to the VBMA weekly report, the dong's central rate closed the week at 25,214 per dollar, up 11 dong, and Brent closed near USD 76 a barrel, about 6% higher as US–Iran tension escalated. Families planning to borrow should model high dollar rates through the end of 2026.

🇨🇾 Cyprus · Over 10,000 property sales in a half-year for the first time

▲10,007

property sale contracts in Cyprus in the first half of 2026, up 14.6% year on yearDepartment of Lands and Surveys, via Cyprus Mail 10 JulPhoto: Berthold Werner, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

An analysis of Department of Lands and Surveys data by the property platform BuySell, published by Cyprus Mail on 10 July, counts 10,007 sale contracts in the first half, with completed transfers worth €2.23 billion. June alone brought 1,964 contracts, up 27%, the best June on record. Limassol led with 3,264 contracts and €906 million in value.

For Vietnamese investors: foreign buyers signed for 4,151 properties in six months, and roughly two in three of them came from outside the EU, the group Vietnamese investors belong to. In Paphos, foreign buyers made up 41.2% of transfers. Per NAC's listing data, Pearl Park in Paphos starts from €230,000 with handover expected in Q4 2026, while Limassol Blu Marine is ready to move into. The residence route is set out in NAC's Cyprus permanent residence programme guide.

🇦🇪 UAE · Dubai home sales value down 15.7% in the first half

▼−15.7%

value of Dubai home sales in H1 2026 versus a year earlier, at AED 221.3 billionCavendish Maxwell, via Gulf News 6 JulPhoto: Like My Travel, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

The valuation firm Cavendish Maxwell's half-year figures, reported by Gulf News on 6 July, show almost 79,200 home sales in six months, down nearly 14% on a year earlier. June rebounded to about 12,315 sales worth AED 25.17 billion, close to 30% more than in May, a month slowed partly by the Eid holiday.

For Vietnamese investors: off-plan homes made up 76% of June sales, so the main risk lies in handover dates and payment plans. With volumes below last year's, cash buyers may find more room to negotiate. Per NAC's listing data, DAMAC Safa Gate is due in Q4 2028, with an estimated gross rental yield of 6%.

🇲🇾 Malaysia · Bank Negara holds its policy rate at 2.75%

●2.75%

Overnight Policy Rate (OPR), unchanged since July 2025Bank Negara Malaysia, 9 JulPhoto: Wlsrudals, Wikimedia Commons, CC0

On 9 July Bank Negara Malaysia, the central bank, kept its Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75%, SAYS reported. Its last move was a quarter-point cut in July 2025. The bank said domestic price pressures remain well contained, with headline inflation averaging 1.7% and core inflation 2.1% from January to May.

For Vietnamese investors: while dollar rates may still rise, the cost of money in Malaysia has not moved for a year. Per NAC's listing data, The Conlay Signature Suites in KLCC was completed in Q2 2025, starts from USD 387,000 and carries an estimated gross rental yield of 4%. The long-stay residence terms are in NAC's MM2H programme guide.

Next week

NAC strategic insight

Home prices in Vietnam are rising faster than rental yields, and dollar rates still have no clear path down. So we favour assets that are finished or close to handover, bought with equity, in markets where deals are still flowing, such as Cyprus. If you'd like to see where your family's portfolio stands after this week, book a consultation with NAC.

Related on NAC

Grand Marina Saigon · The Sycamore Binh Duong · Limassol Blu Marine · Pearl Park Paphos · The Conlay Signature Suites · The NAC Residence Index

Sources

• VOH — Q2: Ho Chi Minh City housing prices edge up, industrial property flat (8 Jul 2026, Vietnamese)
• Federal Reserve — Minutes of the FOMC, June 16–17, 2026 (released 8 Jul 2026)
• VBMA — Weekly bond and money market report (week of 6–10 Jul 2026, Vietnamese)
• Cyprus Mail — Record half year for Cyprus property: 10,007 sales and €2.23 billion change hands (10 Jul 2026)
• Gulf News — Dubai homes record Dh221.3b sales in first half of 2026 (6 Jul 2026)
• SAYS — Bank Negara Malaysia Maintains OPR at 2.75% (9 Jul 2026)
• Federal Reserve — July 2026 calendar · US Bureau of Labor Statistics — July 2026 release schedule