NAC Quarterly Q2 2026: The Quarter Inflation Came Back After the Oil Shock

Q2 2026 was the quarter inflation came back after the oil shock. In May inflation reached 5.6% in Vietnam, 4.2% in the US and 3.2% in the euro area; the ECB and the Reserve Bank of Australia both raised rates, and the Fed changed chairs but did not cut. Brent crude fell 44% over the quarter, so by June inflation had started to ease. Portugal moved the residence needed for citizenship to ten years, while Dubai dropped the property value floor for its investor visa.

Q2 2026 in six numbers

13 weeks, 13 issues

Every Friday this quarter, NAC Weekly logged what moved. Side by side, the 13 issues show the quarter's story moving from oil to inflation, and then to interest rates and residency rules.

Month by month: rates, inflation, the dong

March is the baseline. Each cell is that month's level with its change on the month before; the last column is the quarter's net move.

Brent crude over 13 weeks

This is the Brent spot price published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), so it differs from the futures prices quoted in the weekly issues, although the two series moved the same way.

Month by month: housing markets

The signal map, month by month

🌐 Oil · Brent loses 44% in a turbulent quarter

▼−44%

the Brent spot price over Q2, from US$126.69 (31/3) to US$70.46 a barrel (30/6), calculated by NACEIA, via FREDPhoto: H-Karimi, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0

The quarter opened with Brent spot at a peak of US$138.21 a barrel on 7/4. On 8/4 the US and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire, and futures fell 13.3% in a day. On 17/4 Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open and Brent fell another 10.48%, but a week later the strait was all but closed again and futures were back around US$105. From mid-May prices trended lower, with some rebounds along the way, and hit the quarter's low of US$70.16 on 26/6.

For Vietnamese investors: cheaper oil pulled Vietnam's June consumer prices down 0.39% on May. But a quarter in which a single statement could reverse the oil price is a reminder that payment schedules for property abroad should be able to absorb a few months of volatility, rather than rest on one scenario.

🇺🇸 United States · Inflation hits 4.2% as the Fed changes chairs but holds rates

▲4.2%

US inflation in May 2026, year on year, up from 3.3% in March; gasoline alone rose 40.5%BLS, 10/6Photo: Britt Leckman/Federal Reserve, Wikimedia Commons, public domain

US consumer prices rose 3.3% in March, 3.8% in April and 4.2% in May on a year earlier, and PCE inflation, the gauge the Fed watches most closely, reached 4.1% in May. The Fed held at 3.5–3.75% at both meetings: on 29/4 with four dissents, and on 17/6 with all 12 votes in favour. In between, Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair on 22/5. The June projections raised 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% from 2.7%, and the median year-end rate to 3.8% from 3.4%.

For Vietnamese investors: dollar rates are unlikely to fall in the second half, so borrowing in dollar-pegged markets such as Dubai and Panama is not getting cheaper. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate stayed around 6.3–6.5% all quarter. Buyers paying with their own capital are in a stronger position than borrowers.

🇻🇳 Vietnam · The economy grows 8.39% as inflation peaks at 5.6%

▲8.39%

Q2 2026 GDP year on year, up from 7.83% in Q1; first-half growth was 8.18%Statistics Office, via VietnamFinance 3/7Photo: Bem photography, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

Consumer prices rose 4.65% in March, 5.46% in April and 5.6% in May on a year earlier, then eased to 4.69% in June as fuel prices fell. Early in the quarter 30 banks cut deposit rates, but by mid-June mortgage rates were 2–4 percentage points higher than at the start of the year, with floating rates after the teaser period at about 11–15% a year. The State Bank let 25 banks leave additional lending for social housing and industrial parks out of their 2026 real-estate credit limits.

For Vietnamese investors: savings earning less than inflation are losing purchasing power, while home loans cost far more than in January. The central exchange rate rose only 104 dong over the quarter to 25,206 per dollar, so families moving money abroad have not yet faced much extra currency cost. Per NAC's listing data, The Prince Residence in Phú Nhuận is complete, starts at US$144,000 and has an estimated gross rental yield of 5.5%.

🇪🇺 Euro area · The ECB raises rates for the first time since 2023

▲2.25%

the ECB deposit rate after the 0.25-point hike on 11/6, effective 17/6; the previous hike was in September 2023ECB, via Banco de España 11/6Photo: Dr. Thomas Liptak, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

According to Eurostat, euro-area inflation rose to 2.6% in March, 3% in April and 3.2% in May, driven mainly by energy. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2% on 30/4, then raised it to 2.25% on 11/6, with the main refinancing rate at 2.40%. The ECB expects the euro-area economy to grow just 0.8% in 2026. The June flash estimate showed inflation easing to 2.8%, though Greece was still at 3.9% and Cyprus rose to 4%.

For Vietnamese investors: euro loans for homes in Greece, Cyprus or Portugal are unlikely to get cheaper, and the average euro-area mortgage rate was already 3.4% in April. Families buying residency property with their own capital are less exposed. Cyprus stayed busy: the first half brought 10,007 property sales, the first time the count has topped 10,000.

🇵🇹 Portugal · The road to citizenship doubles to 10 years

▲10 years

legal residence required for citizenship by nationals from outside the EU and the Portuguese-speaking bloc, up from fiveIMI Daily, 3/5; in force from 19/5Photo: Matthew Black, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0

On 1/4 Portugal's parliament passed the revised Nationality Law by 152 votes to 64. President António José Seguro signed it on 3/5, and Organic Law No. 1/2026 took effect on 19/5. Non-EU nationals now need ten years of residence, EU and Portuguese-speaking nationals seven, counted from the day the AIMA immigration agency issues the permit. Only applications filed by 18/5 keep the old rules; on 26/6 nine law firms filed a complaint with the Ombudsman on behalf of 1,260 golden visa investors.

For Vietnamese investors: Vietnamese nationals fall under the ten-year rule. A Portuguese golden visa still gives residence in a Schengen country, but families choosing it for the passport should compare it again with other routes, such as the Greek golden visa or permanent residence in Cyprus.

🇦🇪 UAE · Dubai drops the AED 750,000 floor for its investor visa

▼AED 0

the minimum property value for a sole owner to apply for the two-year investor visa, previously AED 750,000Dubai Land Department, via Enterprise 30/4Photo: Phil6007, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

At the end of April Dubai let anyone who owns a property outright apply for the two-year investor visa, whatever the home is worth. Co-owners must each hold a stake of at least AED 400,000, and the ten-year golden visa still needs property worth AED 2 million. April property transactions reached AED 68.56 billion, and from 2021 to the end of Q1 Dubai had issued 100,286 residence permits to the families of property investors. Prices fell for three months running on ValuStrat's index: 5.9% in March, 1.9% in April and 1.2% in May.

For Vietnamese investors: a small apartment in one person's name now opens a path to Dubai residence, and cash buyers have more room to negotiate while prices adjust. Per NAC's listing data, DAMAC Golf Greens starts at about US$300,000 and is due around Q1 2028; check the visa rules for off-plan homes before committing.

🇦🇺 Australia · The RBA lifts rates to 4.35% as Sydney prices fall three months running

▲4.35%

Australia's cash rate after the 0.25-point hike on 5/5, the third increase of 2026RBA, 5/5 and 16/6Photo: Rob Deutscher, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

On 5/5 the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate from 4.10% to 4.35% by eight votes to one, then held it on 16/6. Inflation eased from 4.6% in March to 4% in May, but trimmed-mean inflation rose to 3.6% and housing costs climbed 6.5%. On Cotality's index, national home values rose 0.3% in April, were flat in May and fell 0.4% in June; Sydney fell 0.6%, 0.9% and then 1.2%, about 2.7% over the quarter on NAC's compounded count.

For Vietnamese investors: Sydney and Melbourne prices are adjusting while borrowing stays expensive, so buyers using their own capital have more time to choose and negotiate. Per NAC's listing data, Aura at Melbourne Square, Southbank starts at about AUD 612,000, with an estimated gross rental yield of 4.7% and completion due in 2029.

What to watch in Q3

NAC strategic insight

Q2 showed how one energy shock can push inflation and interest rates up in many places at once, and how the effects linger after oil has fallen. We still favour assets that are handed over or close to it, bought with equity rather than debt, foreign currency bought in stages that match the payment schedule, and residency programmes chosen for each family's actual goal, especially now that the road to European citizenship is longer. If you want to see where your family's portfolio stands after these 13 weeks, book a consultation with NAC.

Related on NAC

Aura Melbourne Square · 640 Melbourne CBD · DAMAC Golf Greens · The Prince Residence · Pearl Park, Paphos · NAC Residence Index

Sources

• FRED — Brent spot price, EIA (DCOILBRENTEU) · FRED — 30-year fixed mortgage rate, Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US)
• News On AIR — Oil prices crash on the US-Iran ceasefire (8/4/2026) · BusinessDay — Oil plunges as Iran says Hormuz is open (17/4/2026) · VBMA — Weekly report, 20–24/4/2026 (24/4/2026)
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — CPI, March 2026 (10/4/2026) · CPI, April 2026 (12/5/2026) · CPI, May 2026 (10/6/2026) · July 2026 release schedule · BEA — Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 (25/6/2026)
• Federal Reserve — FOMC statement (29/4/2026) · FOMC statement (17/6/2026) · FOMC projections (17/6/2026) · Kevin Warsh sworn in (22/5/2026) · Target range history
• ECB — Key ECB interest rates · Banco de España — ECB holds in April (30/4/2026) · ECB hikes in June (11/6/2026) · Cyprus Mail — ECB raises rates (11/6/2026)
• Eurostat — Euro-area inflation, March (16/4/2026) · May flash estimate (2/6/2026) · June flash estimate (1/7/2026)
• Bank of England — Bank Rate history · Monetary Policy Summary, June 2026 (18/6/2026)
• RBA — Cash rate history · Decision of 5/5/2026 · Decision of 16/6/2026 · ABS — April CPI (27/5/2026) · ABS — May CPI (24/6/2026)
• Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye — one-week repo rate · Trading Economics — Turkey inflation, March (3/4/2026) · May (5/6/2026) · RTTNews — June (3/7/2026)
• Bank of Thailand — MPC decision 3/2026 (24/6/2026) · Thailand Business News — decision of 29/4/2026 · New Straits Times — Bank Negara holds OPR at 2.75% (10/7/2026)
• tygiausd.org — Exchange rate on 31/3 (31/3/2026) · Exchange rate on 29/4 (29/4/2026) · Thị trường Tài chính Tiền tệ — Exchange rate on 29/5 (29/5/2026) · VOV — Exchange rate on 30/6 (30/6/2026)
• Tuổi Trẻ — Q1 GDP and CPI (4/4/2026) · Tạp chí Kinh tế - Tài chính — April CPI (3/5/2026) · Nhân Dân — May CPI (3/6/2026) · Báo Đấu thầu — June CPI (3/7/2026) · VietnamFinance — Q2 GDP (3/7/2026)
• Dân trí — 30 banks cut deposit rates (20/4/2026) · VietnamFinance — Mortgage rates keep rising (17/6/2026) · Nhân Dân — 25 banks get more credit room (31/5/2026)
• webgia.com — SJC gold price 31/3 · 29/4 · 29/5 · 30/6
• Cotality — March home values (1/4/2026) · MPA — Cotality, April (1/5/2026) · Savings.com.au — Cotality, May (1/6/2026) · Trading Economics — Cotality, June (30/6/2026)
• Trading Economics — Nationwide, March (31/3/2026) · Nationwide, May (1/6/2026) · Mortgage Solutions — Nationwide, June (1/7/2026)
• MPA — Rightmove, March (16/3/2026) · Kaeltripton — Rightmove, April (20/4/2026) · Mortgage Solutions — Rightmove, May (18/5/2026) · Global Banking & Finance — Rightmove, June (15/6/2026)
• dom.com.cy — Cyprus sales, March (10/4/2026) · Cyprus Mail — April (12/5/2026) · May (3/6/2026) · First half (10/7/2026)
• Alo Maliye — Turkish home sales, March (17/4/2026) · DHA — April (14/5/2026) · DHA — May (18/6/2026)
• Enterprise — Dubai drops the floor on property visas (30/4/2026) · Khaleej Times — Dubai property sales in April (3/5/2026) · Khaleej Times — Permits for investor families (15/5/2026) · Consultancy-me — ValuStrat, May (11/6/2026)
• IMI Daily — Portugal's President signs the nationality law (3/5/2026) · CMS — Organic Law No. 1/2026 (18/5/2026) · IMI Daily — 1,260 investors file a complaint (26/6/2026)
• Federal Reserve — 2026 FOMC calendar · Banco de España — ECB decisions, 2026 · RBA — 2026 meeting calendar