NAC Weekly No. 03: UAE Property Deals Fall 37% in Early March

Nearly three weeks into the war, the first hard numbers on Dubai property have arrived: Goldman Sachs estimates UAE transactions in the first 12 days of March were down 37% on a year earlier. At home, gold bars fell 6.6% in a week and RON95 petrol rose to VND 30,690 a litre. Australia raised rates, while the Fed and the ECB stood still to see where energy prices go.

Market pulse, week of 16–22/3/2026

Signals this week

🇦🇪 UAE · Property deals fall 37% in the first 12 days of March

▼−37%

UAE property transactions from 1 to 12 March 2026 versus a year earlier, as estimated by Goldman SachsReuters, 20 MarPhoto: Jpbowen, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Reuters reported on 20 March that Goldman Sachs estimates UAE property transactions in the first 12 days of March were down 37% on a year earlier and 49% on February. The median transacted price was only about 3% lower than a year before, but some sellers had cut prices by 12–15%. Emaar Properties shares have lost more than 26% since the war began.

For Vietnamese investors: deals are falling faster than prices, which means most sellers have not yet given ground. Cash buyers have more time and more room to negotiate, especially on off-plan units. Per NAC's listing data, DAMAC Golf Greens starts at USD 300,000, with handover due around Q1 2028 on an 80/20 payment plan.

🇻🇳 Vietnam · SJC gold loses VND 12.1 million a tael in a week

▼−6.6%

SJC gold bar selling price over 16–22 March, down to VND 171.0 million a taelSimplize, 22 MarPhoto: Diego Delso, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

On the morning of 19 March, after the Fed held rates, SJC gold bars fell VND 4.6 million a tael to a selling price of VND 178.4 million, Saigon Giai Phong reported. World gold slipped to around USD 4,862 an ounce as the dollar strengthened. Simplize put the week's close at VND 171.0 million. That evening the RON95-III petrol ceiling rose to VND 30,690 a litre, Industry and Trade Magazine reported.

For Vietnamese investors: domestic gold trades about VND 24.5 million a tael above the converted world price, so bar buyers are paying a large premium. Gold can lose more than 6% in a single week, so families should treat it as one part of their defensive assets, alongside foreign currency and rented property.

🇺🇸 United States · The Fed holds and projects only one cut this year

●3.5–3.75%

Fed funds target range after the 17–18 March meeting; 2026 PCE inflation forecast raised to 2.7%Fed, 18 MarPhoto: Ajay Suresh, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

On 18 March the Fed held its target range at 3.5–3.75%; Stephen Miran dissented in favour of a quarter-point cut. The statement said the implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy "are uncertain". In the accompanying projections, 2026 PCE inflation was raised to 2.7% from 2.4%, while the median year-end rate stayed at 3.4%, implying one cut.

For Vietnamese investors: dollar rates are likely to stay high for some months, and the stronger dollar knocked gold lower the very next morning. In Dubai and Panama, whose currencies are tied to the dollar, borrowing costs are unlikely to fall soon, so buying with equity remains the stronger position.

🇦🇺 Australia · The RBA raises rates to 4.10%

▲4.10%

Australia's cash rate after the 17 March meeting, up 0.25 percentage points on a 5–4 voteRBA, 17 MarPhoto: Ymblanter, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

On 17 March the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by a quarter point, from 3.85% to 4.10%, on a 5–4 vote. The board said inflation had picked up materially in the second half of 2025 and was likely to stay above target for some time. Sharply higher fuel prices from the Middle East conflict would add to inflation if they persist.

For Vietnamese investors: dearer mortgages will cool local buyers, while foreign buyers using their own funds are less exposed. Per NAC's listing data, West Side Place in Melbourne's CBD was completed in 2022, starts at AUD 486,000 and carries an estimated 5.2% gross yield.

🇪🇺 Euro area · The ECB holds at 2% and lifts its inflation forecast to 2.6%

▲2.6%

ECB staff forecast for euro-area inflation in 2026, raised mainly on energy prices; deposit rate held at 2%ECB, 19 MarPhoto: Warburg1866, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

On 19 March the ECB left all three key rates unchanged, with the deposit rate at 2%. As Paperjam reported, staff raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%, mainly on energy prices, and cut growth to 0.9%. President Christine Lagarde said the war had made the outlook "significantly more uncertain".

For Vietnamese investors: low euro rates keep mortgage costs in Greece or Cyprus easier than borrowing in dollars, but the ECB may have to raise rates if inflation stays high. Per NAC's listing data, The One in Glyfada starts at EUR 281,000 and Boulevard in Kallithea at EUR 264,000, both due for completion in 2026.

Next week

NAC strategic insight

The first data from Dubai show deals falling faster than prices, and rates in the US, Europe and Australia show no sign of easing soon. We see this as a time to watch and negotiate: favour finished or nearly finished assets bought with equity, and wait for full March sales figures before committing in the Gulf. If you'd like to see how your family's portfolio should adjust after this week, book a consultation with NAC.

Related on NAC

DAMAC Golf Greens · DAMAC Safa Gate · West Side Place Melbourne · The One Glyfada · The NAC Residence Index

Sources

• TimesLive (Reuters) — Dubai property sector shows early signs of weakness (21 Mar 2026)
• Saigon Giai Phong — Gold falls VND 4.1–4.6 million a tael on the morning of 19 March (19 Mar 2026, Vietnamese)
• Simplize — Gold price summary, week 12 of 2026 (22 Mar 2026, Vietnamese)
• Industry and Trade Magazine — Fuel price adjustment of 19 March (19 Mar 2026, Vietnamese)
• VBMA — Weekly bond market report, 16–20 March 2026 (20 Mar 2026, Vietnamese)
• Federal Reserve — FOMC statement (18 Mar 2026) · Federal Reserve — Summary of Economic Projections (18 Mar 2026)
• Reserve Bank of Australia — Monetary Policy Decision (17 Mar 2026)
• Banco de España — ECB keeps interest rates unchanged in March (19 Mar 2026) · Paperjam — ECB holds rates as war clouds outlook (19 Mar 2026)
• ONS — Consumer price inflation, February 2026 (released 25 Mar 2026) · ABS — Monthly CPI release schedule · Federal Reserve — March 2026 calendar