NAC Weekly No. 17: US Inflation Climbs to 4.1% in May
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NAC Weekly No. 17: US Inflation Climbs to 4.1% in May

US inflation hits 4.1%, a three-year high, 1,260 Portugal golden visa investors file a complaint and the dong's central rate rises to 25,195. Five stories.

US PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May, a three-year high, lifting the odds of a Fed hike this year to about 82%. At home, the dong's central rate climbed to 25,195 per dollar. Thailand held its policy rate at 1%, Australian housing costs rose 6.5% and 1,260 Portugal golden visa investors joined a complaint against the new nationality law.

Market pulse, week of 22–28/6/2026

US PCE inflation, May4.1%▲ 0.4% on the monthThree-year high; core 3.4%
Fed funds (upper bound)3.75%● held on 17 JunOdds of a 2026 hike about 82%
VND central rate25,195 per USD▲ 14 dong vs 22 JunState Bank of Vietnam, 26 Jun
Australia CPI, May4.0%▼ 0.2 pt vs AprilHousing group up 6.5%
Thailand policy rate1.00%● held on 24 JunUnanimous 7-0 vote
Portugal golden visa1,260▼ investors in complaintNine law firms, 26 Jun

Source: BEA (25 Jun); Fed (17 Jun); Thoi bao Tai chinh Viet Nam (26 Jun); Australian Bureau of Statistics (24 Jun); Bank of Thailand (24 Jun); IMI Daily (26 Jun)

Signals this week

Prices and dealsMoney and ratesRules and process
🇺🇸 United StatesPrices and deals—Money and ratesInflation 4.1%, a hike now likelyRules and process—
🇻🇳 VietnamPrices and deals—Money and ratesCentral rate up 14 dongRules and process—
🇵🇹 PortugalPrices and deals—Money and rates—Rules and process1,260 investors contest new law
🇦🇺 AustraliaPrices and dealsHousing up 6.5%, new homes 5.6%Money and ratesInflation eases to 4%Rules and process—
🇹🇭 ThailandPrices and deals—Money and ratesRate held at 1%, baht weakerRules and process—
▲rising▼falling●steady / watch

Source: NAC, compiled from the sources in this issue

🇺🇸 United States · May PCE inflation hits 4.1%, a three-year high

The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington under renovation, June 20264.1%

US PCE inflation in May, year on year, above 4% for the first time in three yearsBEA, released 25 JunPhoto: G. Edward Johnson, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

On 25 June the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported May's PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely, up 4.1% on a year earlier. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, was 3.4%. CME FedWatch put the odds of a Fed hike this year near 82%, Thoi bao Tai chinh Viet Nam reported on 26 June, only days after the Fed held its target range at 3.5–3.75% on 17 June.

For Vietnamese investors: mortgages in dollar-linked markets such as Dubai and Panama are unlikely to get cheaper in the second half. Families planning to borrow abroad should model high rates through the end of 2026.

🇻🇳 Vietnam · The dong's central rate rises to 25,195 per dollar

Hanoi from above, with West Lake and Truc Bach Lake25,195

dong per US dollar, central rate on the morning of 26 June, 14 dong above 22 JuneState Bank of Vietnam, 26 JunPhoto: Alex 69200 vx, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

On the morning of 26 June the State Bank of Vietnam set its central rate at VND 25,195 per dollar, up from 25,181 on Monday, according to Thoi bao Tai chinh Viet Nam and Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te on 22 June. The same day, Giavang.net recorded Vietcombank selling dollars at 26,454 dong, close to the top of the 5% band, with the free market near 26,720–26,750.

For Vietnamese investors: a USD 300,000 instalment bought at the bank today costs about VND 7.94 billion (NAC estimate). Families with staged payments abroad should buy currency in tranches through banks rather than on the free market, where a dollar costs nearly 300 dong more.

🇵🇹 Portugal · 1,260 golden visa investors contest the new nationality law

NAC Weekly No. 17: US Inflation Climbs to 4.1% in May1,260

golden visa investors named in the complaint to Portugal's OmbudsmanIMI Daily, 26 JunPhoto: Matthew Black, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0

Nine Portuguese law firms filed a complaint with the Ombudsman (Provedoria de Justiça) on behalf of 1,260 golden visa clients, IMI Daily reported on 26 June. It targets the nationality law in force since 19 May, which doubles the residence needed for citizenship from five to ten years for most foreigners, and the delays at the migration agency AIMA. Only applications filed by 18 May are protected, so families who waited three to five years for a residence card still fall under the new clock.

For Vietnamese investors: Vietnamese nationals are neither EU nor CPLP citizens, so the ten-year rule applies. Families choosing Portugal for a passport should compare it with other routes. The qualifying options are in NAC's Portugal golden visa programme guide.

🇦🇺 Australia · Housing costs up 6.5% as inflation eases to 4%

Southbank and the Yarra River, Melbourne+6.5%

housing group in Australia's CPI, 12 months to May 2026Australian Bureau of Statistics, 24 JunPhoto: terrazzo, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 24 June that the CPI rose 4.0% in the 12 months to May, down from 4.2% in April. Trimmed-mean inflation, the core measure, edged up from 3.4% to 3.6%. Housing rose 6.5% and was the largest contributor, with new dwelling prices up 5.6% and rents up 3.6%.

For Vietnamese investors: foreign buyers in Australia mostly buy new homes, the very segment rising fastest, and firmer core inflation means rate cuts are unlikely soon. Per NAC's listing data, Aura in Southbank, Melbourne starts from about AUD 612,000, with an estimated gross yield of 4.7% and handover expected in 2029.

🇹🇭 Thailand · The central bank holds at 1%

Bang Khun Phrom Palace in the Bank of Thailand compound, Bangkok1.00%

Thailand's policy rate; all seven committee members voted to holdBank of Thailand, 24 JunPhoto: Supanut Arunoprayote, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

On 24 June the Bank of Thailand held its policy rate at 1.00% in a 7-0 vote. It now sees growth of 2.3% in 2026, stronger than it expected, and average inflation of 2.8%, above its target range for the rest of the year. The statement noted that the baht has weakened against the dollar as the Fed shifted its stance.

For Vietnamese investors: a weaker baht makes Thai property cheaper for buyers holding dollars. Per NAC's listing data, Coco Parc on Rama 4 in Bangkok was completed in December 2022 and starts from about USD 206,000, with an estimated gross yield of 5%. Culture Thonglor is due for completion this month, June 2026.

Next week

Mon29/6ECB Forum on Central Banking opens in Sintra, Portugal
Tue30/6
Wed1/7Vietnam cuts building-permit time for private houses to 7 working daysECB forum in Sintra closes
Thu2/7US June jobs report
Fri3/7Vietnam releases Q2 2026 GDPUS stock markets closed for Independence Day
Sat4/7US marks 250 years of independence
Sun5/7

Source: ECB, LuatVietnam (Resolution 66.18/2026/NQ-CP), US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Vietnam's National Statistics Office, NYSE

NAC strategic insight

With US inflation rising again, the dollar and borrowing costs may stay high through the second half. We favour property that is finished or close to handover, paid with equity, currency bought in tranches that match the payment schedule, and a residence programme chosen for the family's actual goal. If you'd like to review your family's plan after this week, book a consultation with NAC.

Markets in this issueThailand, Australia and Vietnam all made the news this week, and NAC has listings on sale in each
🇹🇭 ThailandFreehold condos in Bangkok and PhuketBangkok at duskExplore the market →🇦🇺 AustraliaNew apartments in Sydney and MelbourneCentral SydneyExplore the market →🇻🇳 VietnamBranded homes in Da Nang, Ho Tram and HCMCSaigon by nightExplore the market →

Coco Parc, Bangkok · Culture Thonglor, Bangkok · Aura, Southbank · The NAC Residence Index

Sources