NAC Weekly No. 32: Saigon Condo Prices Up 12%, Fed Leaves the Door Open to Another Hike

Three markets moved three ways this week. New-condo prices in Ho Chi Minh City are up 12% in a year, Dubai home sales fell sharply in Q3, and Europe stretched its residence queues. The Fed's minutes suggest dollar rates could rise once more before year end.

Market pulse, week of 5–11/10/2026

Signals this week

🇻🇳 Vietnam · Ho Chi Minh City new condos reach USD 4,210 per m²

▲+12%

average primary apartment price in Ho Chi Minh City, year on year, Q3 2026Knight Frank, via VnExpress 8 OctPhoto: Radek Kucharski, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0

Knight Frank Vietnam's Q3 2026 report, covered by VnExpress on 8 October, puts the average primary apartment price in Ho Chi Minh City at about USD 4,210, roughly VND 110 million, per square metre, 3% up on the quarter. The central area launched 2,711 new units, most of them premium or above, and absorbed 38%.

For Vietnamese investors: after a 12% rise in a year, rental yield decides whether today's purchase pays. Per NAC's listing data, estimated gross yields around Ben Thanh Market and the Ba Son port run from 3% at One Central Saigon to 5.8% at Grand Marina Saigon.

🇺🇸 United States · Fed minutes leave the door open to one more hike

▲3.75–4%

Fed funds target range after September's hike, the first rise since 2024Fed, minutes released 7 OctPhoto: Federal Reserve, Wikimedia Commons, public domain

On 7 October the Fed released the minutes of its 15–16 September meeting, at which it raised rates by a quarter point after six straight cuts. August PCE inflation was estimated at 3.8%, and most officials judged another rise "would likely be appropriate" by year end. The next meeting is on 27–28 October.

For Vietnamese investors: borrowing costs in dollar-linked markets such as Dubai are unlikely to ease soon. At home the dong is calm: on 9 October the State Bank set its central rate at VND 25,629 per dollar. Families planning to borrow should model high rates through the end of 2026.

🇦🇪 UAE · Dubai home sales value nearly halves in Q3

▼−47%

value of Dubai home sales in Q3 2026 versus a year earlier, down to AED 72.6 billionCavendish Maxwell, via The National 7 OctPhoto: Robert Bock, Wikimedia Commons, CC0

Cavendish Maxwell's figures, reported by The National on 7 October, show Q3 transactions down 38% to 34,000, with off-plan homes 65% of sales value. S&P Global, citing industry reports, says prices have fallen 5–15% since the end of 2025, as the market cooled from late February 2026.

For Vietnamese investors: cash buyers have more room to negotiate than at the start of the year. For off-plan, read the handover date and payment plan closely. Per NAC's listing data, Mercedes-Benz Places is due in Q4 2026 and DAMAC Safa Gate in Q4 2028.

🇵🇹 Portugal · Only 13% of the golden visa backlog processed

●14–18 months

the wait Lisbon advisers now quote to new applicantsIMI Daily, 8 OctPhoto: NorbertNagel, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Minister of the Presidency António Leitão Amaro said the migration agency AIMA has processed 6,000 of 46,000 pending golden visa files and booked appointments for about 30,000, IMI Daily reported on 8 October. A week earlier, IMI's survey put the average wait at a record 50.4 months.

For Vietnamese investors: a family filing now should plan on 14–18 months at least before a residence card arrives. Since 19 May, investors from outside the EU need ten years of residence for citizenship. The qualifying routes are in NAC's Portugal golden visa programme guide.

🇪🇸 Spain · Snap election, and the 100% tax on non-EU buyers lapses

●29 Nov

snap general election; parliament is dissolved and unfinished bills dieEuronews, IMI Daily 5 OctPhoto: Antonio Vélez, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 ES

On 5 October Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called an early election, Euronews reported, after the lower house voted down two housing decrees on 2 October. As IMI Daily noted on 5 October, dissolution also ends the proposal to tax non-EU, non-resident buyers at up to 100% of a property's value.

For Vietnamese investors: Vietnamese buyers are exactly the group that tax targeted. The risk has receded, but the next parliament will set housing policy, so families weighing a Spanish purchase should wait until after 29 November.

Next week

NAC strategic insight

With dollar rates likely to stay high for a few more months, we favour assets that are finished or close to handover, bought with equity rather than debt, and a residence timeline that allows for real-world waits. If you'd like to see where your family's portfolio stands after this week, book a consultation with NAC.

Related on NAC

One Central Saigon · Grand Marina Saigon · Mercedes-Benz Places · DAMAC Safa Gate · The NAC Residence Index

Sources

• VnExpress — New apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City keep rising (8 Oct 2026, Vietnamese)
• Federal Reserve — Minutes of the FOMC, September 15–16, 2026 (released 7 Oct 2026)
• Federal Reserve — Open Market Operations, target range changes (updated Sep 2026)
• Doanh nghiệp và Tiếp thị — USD exchange rate, 9 October (9 Oct 2026, Vietnamese)
• The National — Dubai home sale transactions fall in third quarter (7 Oct 2026)
• IMI Daily — Portugal Says It Has Processed 13% of Its Golden Visa Backlog (8 Oct 2026)
• Euronews — Spain's Sánchez calls snap election for 29 November (5 Oct 2026)
• IMI Daily — Spain to Hold Snap Election on November 29 (5 Oct 2026)
• IMF — 2026 Annual Meetings · IMF — World Economic Outlook, October 2026
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics — CPI release schedule 2026 · Federal Reserve — October 2026 calendar