Contents
Vietnam grew 8.02% in 2025 and nearly doubled income per head in a decade. How it stacks up against five ASEAN peers – and why fast growth doesn't replace diversifying.
Over the ten years from 2016 to 2025, Vietnam's economy grew by about 6.2% a year on average – the fastest of ASEAN's six largest economies. In 2025 GDP rose 8.02%, income per head reached about USD 5,066 – edging past Indonesia for the first time – and the IMF expects Vietnam to lead the region again in 2026 at 7.1%. Yet fast growth at home doesn't mean all of a family's wealth should stay at home. That very speed, and the risks that ride with it, is why many Vietnamese families are starting to diversify abroad.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (July 2026 update); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026
In Vietnam, growth figures are usually read as unambiguous good news, and mostly they are. Investors need to read them differently: compared with whom, how durable, and with which risks attached.
This piece lines Vietnam up against ASEAN's five other large economies – Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore – on real growth, income per head and the IMF's outlook.
A Decade of Vietnamese Growth
Pandemic years aside, Vietnam has grown at or above about 7% almost every year. In 2020 and 2021 the pace dropped to 2.9% and 2.6%, yet Vietnam was the only one of these six economies to avoid contraction in 2020. Then came an 8.5% rebound in 2022, a 5% pause in 2023, 7% in 2024 and 8.02% in 2025.
View data table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 7% |
| 2016 | 6.7% |
| 2017 | 6.9% |
| 2018 | 7.5% |
| 2019 | 7.4% |
| 2020 | 2.9% |
| 2021 | 2.6% |
| 2022 | 8.5% |
| 2023 | 5% |
| 2024 | 7% |
| 2025 | 8% |
| 2026 (Forecast) | 7.1% |
Source: World Bank, WDI (2015–2025); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026 (2026)
2026 is running ahead of the forecast. According to first-half data, GDP grew 8.18% in the first six months of 2026, up from 7.63% a year earlier. The government is targeting at least 10% for the full year. The IMF's 7.1% therefore looks cautious and is best read as a reference point, not a ceiling.
Vietnam Against Five ASEAN Peers
Side by side, the gap is clear. Averaged over 2016–2025, Vietnam grew about 6.2% a year, the Philippines 4.5%, Indonesia 4.2%, Malaysia 4%, Singapore 3.4% and Thailand just 1.9%. After ten years Vietnam's real GDP is almost 83% larger, while Thailand's has grown by roughly 21%.
Fast, but also volatile. Vietnam's range is wider than Indonesia's: from 2.6% to 8.5% in the space of two years, while Indonesia sits near 5% almost every year. For a business, bigger swings mean cash flows that are harder to forecast.
After ten years Vietnam's real GDP is almost 83% larger, while Thailand's has grown by roughly 21%.
Income Per Head: Running Fast From a Low Base
Vietnam's GDP per capita rose from about USD 2,578 in 2015 to USD 5,066 in 2025, almost doubling in dollar terms. That's the fastest increase in the group, even after allowing for the dong's gradual slide against the dollar.
The absolute gap is still huge. In 2025 GDP per head was about USD 13,125 in Malaysia, USD 8,057 in Thailand and USD 98,814 in Singapore – almost 20 times Vietnam's. World Bank data shows Vietnam passing Indonesia by only a few dollars, so the ranking could flip with exchange rates.
| Country | GDP per capita 2015 (USD) | GDP per capita 2025 (USD) | Real growth 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 55,646 | 98,814 | 5.0% |
| Malaysia | 9,649 | 13,125 | 5.2% |
| Thailand | 5,689 | 8,057 | 2.4% |
| Vietnam | 2,578 | 5,066 | 8.0% |
| Indonesia | 3,288 | 5,060 | 5.1% |
| Philippines | 2,910 | 4,171 | 4.4% |
What the IMF Expects for 2026
In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF cut its global growth forecast to 3.1%, citing higher energy prices and uncertainty in the Middle East. Vietnam still leads the region at 7.1%, while Thailand trails at 1.5%.
Forecasts move often. The IMF and others revise several times a year, and the July 2026 update has already lifted forecasts for some countries, Thailand among them. In October 2025, the IMF and World Bank forecasts then being cited expected Vietnam to grow only about 6.5–6.6% that year; the outcome was above 8%. Treat forecasts as direction, not destiny.
Fast Growth – So Why Diversify?
It sounds contradictory: if Vietnam is the region's fastest grower, why not keep everything at home? The answer comes down to three points.
First, GDP growth isn't investment return. A fast-growing economy doesn't mean asset prices or the currency will follow. In 2025, even as the US dollar fell about 9.4% against major currencies, the State Bank's central VND/USD rate rose from 24,327 (30 December 2024) to 25,121 (31 December 2025) – the dong weakened by about 3.3%.
Diversifying isn't a bet against Vietnam; it's refusing to let everything depend on a single economy.
Second, growth leans heavily on the outside world. Foreign-invested firms produce more than three-quarters of exports, and the US is the largest export market. One shift in trade policy can hit both the national economy and the family business at the same time.
Third, concentrated wealth means concentrated risk. Most families who have grown rich in Vietnam hold their wealth in domestic property and businesses, valued in dong. Diversifying isn't a bet against Vietnam; it's refusing to let everything depend on a single economy.
A practical strategy for Vietnamese investors
Keep the core in Vietnam, add an outside layer. Domestic growth remains a big opportunity; the diversified share can be a modest slice of total wealth.
Pick places with a different cycle. Malaysia grows steadily at around 4–5% and runs the property-linked MM2H programme; a central Kuala Lumpur project such as Pavilion Square KLCC gives a family a residence close to home but in a different currency system.
Add a euro-denominated asset. An apartment in Glyfada, Athens brings European residency and a share of wealth that doesn't depend on the dong or the dollar.
Review every year. Growth rankings change quickly. Revisit the split between domestic and foreign assets as new economic data arrives.
Frequently asked questions
Is Vietnam the fastest-growing economy in ASEAN?
Among the six largest, yes: about 6.2% a year on average over 2016–2025 and 8.02% in 2025, according to World Bank data.
Has Vietnam's GDP per capita overtaken Indonesia's?
On the World Bank's 2025 figures, Vietnam reached about USD 5,066, slightly ahead of Indonesia's USD 5,060. The margin is tiny and could change with exchange rates and data revisions.
If the economy is growing fast, do I need to invest abroad?
It isn't required, but it's sensible for families with significant wealth. The aim isn't to leave Vietnam; it's to reduce dependence on one currency and one market.
NAC strategic insight
Vietnam is Southeast Asia's standout growth story, and Vietnamese families are its direct beneficiaries. But precisely because their wealth has grown so fast, protecting it from exchange-rate swings, trade-policy shocks and the domestic property cycle matters more than ever.
NAC helps Vietnamese families build a balanced second layer of wealth: choosing countries on a different cycle, selecting assets with real value and adding residency where it's useful. If you'd like to see what level of diversification suits your family, book a consultation with NAC.
Sources
- World Bank — GDP growth (annual %), WDI (2026)
- World Bank — GDP per capita (current US$), WDI (2026)
- Databoks — IMF's projection of economic growth in Southeast Asian countries for 2026 (2026)
- VNA — Vietnam posts 8.18% GDP growth in H1 2026 (2026)
- Trading Economics — Vietnam targets 10% GDP growth in 2026 (2025)
