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South Korea has 0.75 births per woman; 30% of Japan is over 65. Vietnam is following – and that shapes taxes, healthcare, housing and retirement plans.
In 2024 the average Vietnamese woman had 1.91 children, a record low and already below the replacement rate of 2.1. People aged 65 and over made up about 9.5% of the population in 2025 – still low next to Japan (30%) or South Korea (20%), but rising faster each year. Vietnam entered its "golden population" period in 2007, and official projections suggest the window could close somewhere between 2036 and 2039. For families with wealth, demographics isn't just a policy topic: it drives taxes, healthcare costs, housing demand and where parents will spend their later years.
Source: Vietnam statistics office via AP (2025); World Bank, World Development Indicators (July 2026)
Many Vietnamese still picture their country as young, with a huge working-age population. That's true today, but it's changing faster than any previous generation has seen. The parks of Hanoi, full of older residents exercising at dawn, are a familiar sight; in twenty years that group will be a much larger share of society.
This piece sets Vietnam beside the countries that went first – Japan, South Korea, China, Thailand – and some familiar residence destinations, to show how quickly demographics are shifting and what that means for a family's wealth plan.
Fertility Is Falling Across Asia
The total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime. To keep a population stable over the long run it needs to sit around 2.1. According to the World Bank, most Asian economies fell below that level long ago.
Vietnam is still above most of the region, but the direction is clear. Official figures cited by AP when Vietnam scrapped its two-child policy in June 2025 show fertility falling from 2.11 in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023 and 1.91 in 2024. Ho Chi Minh City is down to just 1.39 – lower than Portugal.
Dropping the two-child limit may not reverse the trend. China, South Korea and Singapore all show that when housing, education and work pressure are expensive, urban families keep having fewer children whatever the incentives.
South Korea: A Glimpse of What Lies Ahead
South Korea is the most extreme example of how fast demographics can turn. Its fertility rate sat around 1.2–1.3 in the early 2010s, then fell for eight straight years.
Ho Chi Minh City's fertility rate is down to just 1.39 – lower than Portugal.
View data table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| 2013 | 1.19 |
| 2014 | 1.21 |
| 2015 | 1.24 |
| 2016 | 1.17 |
| 2017 | 1.05 |
| 2018 | 0.98 |
| 2019 | 0.92 |
| 2020 | 0.84 |
| 2021 | 0.81 |
| 2022 | 0.78 |
| 2023 | 0.72 |
| 2024 | 0.75 |
| 2025 (Forecast) | 0.8 |
Source: World Bank (2013–2024); Statistics Korea, preliminary 2025 data (February 2026)
A small rebound, still very low. According to preliminary data released in February 2026, Korea's fertility rate edged up to 0.80 in 2025, a four-year high, helped by a recovery in marriages. Even so, it remains less than half the replacement rate.
The consequences already show in the age structure. The share of South Koreans aged 65 and over doubled from about 10% in 2008 to more than 20% in 2025 – in just 17 years.
The Share of Older People: Where Vietnam Stands
On the usual definitions, a country is "ageing" when people aged 65+ exceed 7% of the population, "aged" above 14% and "super-aged" above 20%. The chart below shows where each country sits.
Thailand is the closest lesson. Vietnam's neighbour crossed the 14% "aged" line around 2022, while its income per head was still middle-ranking. The worry about growing old before growing rich is no longer theoretical.
View data table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 6.1% |
| 2011 | 6.1% |
| 2012 | 6.1% |
| 2013 | 6.2% |
| 2014 | 6.3% |
| 2015 | 6.5% |
| 2016 | 6.6% |
| 2017 | 6.8% |
| 2018 | 7% |
| 2019 | 7.3% |
| 2020 | 7.6% |
| 2021 | 7.9% |
| 2022 | 8.2% |
| 2023 | 8.6% |
| 2024 | 9.1% |
| 2025 | 9.5% |
Source: World Bank, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS (updated July 2026)
Vietnam's curve is getting steeper. In the early 2010s the older share barely moved from around 6%. From 2015 onwards it rose faster each year, adding almost two percentage points in the last five years alone. Using a 60-plus threshold, Việt Nam News reports that this group was already about 16% of the population in 2023, and Vietnam is expected to become an "aged" society by 2036.
How Long Is Left in the Golden Window?
A "golden population" is the stage when people of working age outnumber dependants by at least two to one. Vietnam entered it in 2007. Earlier estimates had it lasting until around 2039, but according to Tuổi Trẻ, citing the population authority and statistics office, the window could close earlier – around 2036 – if birth rates keep falling.
In Japan, every two working-age people now support one older person. In Vietnam the figure is 14 older people per 100 of working age – a big advantage, but one with an expiry date. Vietnam's population passed 102 million in 2025, and official scenarios show it starting to shrink around the middle of this century.
What Demographics Change
Taxes and social security. As contributors shrink and pensioners grow, pressure on pension funds and health budgets is unavoidable. Fast-ageing countries usually raise contributions, lift the retirement age or broaden the tax base.
In Japan, every two working-age people now support one older person.
Healthcare costs. A family with parents in their seventies cares far more about hospital quality, insurance and long-term care than about any growth figure.
Housing demand. An older, shrinking population changes the kind of housing people need: fewer large homes on the urban fringe, more apartments close to hospitals and services. Japan has already seen empty homes spread across regions where the population is falling.
Where to retire. Many Asian families are weighing retirement – for their parents or themselves – somewhere with a kind climate, reasonable costs and good healthcare. Destinations such as Malaysia and Panama still have young populations, while southern Europe is older but has well-developed health systems.
A practical strategy for Vietnamese investors
Plan for three generations at once. A good wealth plan covers the children's education, your own career and your parents' care. Residence rights that extend to the wider family are often worth more than rights for one person.
Look at retirement destinations with dedicated programmes. Malaysia's MM2H allows long-term residence; an apartment such as Conlay Signature Suites in Kuala Lumpur can be a home and a rental while the family isn't using it.
Diversify income across demographic profiles. A rental asset in a young, growing market such as Panama carries different demand risk from one in an already-aged country.
Judge southern Europe with clear eyes. Portugal, Greece and Italy are ageing fast, but they offer good healthcare and tourism-driven rental demand. An apartment in Piraeus, Athens should be weighed on both rental yield and quality of life for the family's older members.
Frequently asked questions
What is Vietnam's fertility rate now?
The statistics office puts it at 1.91 births per woman in 2024; later reports suggest about 1.93 in 2025. Both are below the 2.1 replacement rate.
When does Vietnam's golden population period end?
Vietnam entered it in 2007. Estimates place the end between 2036 and 2039, depending on how quickly fertility falls.
How does an ageing population affect property?
Demand gradually shifts towards apartments near healthcare and amenities, while areas with falling populations can face price pressure. The impact varies widely from city to city.
NAC strategic insight
Vietnam still has the demographic advantage that Japan and South Korea have lost, and it's one reason the economy keeps growing strongly. But the numbers show the window is shorter than many assume, and families with wealth should use these growth years to prepare for the next stage.
NAC helps Vietnamese families plan across generations: choosing back-up residences with good healthcare and schooling, weighing retirement options and building rental portfolios in markets with different demographic drivers. If you'd like to start from your own family's situation, book a consultation with NAC.
Sources
- World Bank — Fertility rate, total (updated 2026)
- World Bank — Population ages 65 and above, % of total (updated 2026)
- AP — Vietnam scraps 2-child policy as aging threatens economic growth (2025)
- Tuổi Trẻ News — Vietnam population tops 102 million but faces long-term decline risk (2026)
- Capital FM / Yonhap — S. Korea's total fertility rate hits 4-year high in 2025 (2026)
