A Weaker Dollar and Central Banks Buying Gold: Why Vietnamese Families Need a Multi-Currency Balance Sheet
NAC Perspective · Vietnam · Greece · Banking
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A Weaker Dollar and Central Banks Buying Gold: Why Vietnamese Families Need a Multi-Currency Balance Sheet

De-dollarisation is louder than the data. The lesson for Vietnamese families is not a currency bet — it is a balance sheet that lives in more than one currency.

The dollar has not collapsed and is unlikely to in the next few years — but its dominance is slowly eroding, and central banks have bought gold well above historical norms four years running. For a Vietnamese family whose wealth sits almost entirely in dong plus some US dollar cash, the lesson is not to guess which currency wins, but to build a balance sheet that lives in more than one currency. Residency and property in a euro economy fit as one layer of that structure — not as a currency bet.

Most of the de-dollarisation debate happens in Washington, Beijing and Brussels, through the lens of countries competing for monetary influence. The Vietnamese investor sits somewhere else entirely. They don't manage national reserves, yet every shift between the major currencies lands directly on the family's wealth. The real question for them is not "will the dollar lose its crown?" but "how many legs is my wealth standing on?"

What the data actually says about the dollar

The long trend: According to the IMF's COFER data, the dollar made up roughly 71% of central banks' allocated foreign-exchange reserves in 1999, drifting down to about 57.8% by the end of 2024 (IMF COFER via DBnomics). That is a slow slide over more than two decades, not a crash.

The short-term rhythm runs the other way: In its brief published on 1 July 2026, the IMF reported that the dollar's share of reserves actually rose to 57.13% in Q1 2026, up from 56.42% in Q4 2025, with the euro at about 20.03% and the renminbi at just 1.99% (IMF — COFER Q1 2026). The dollar remains the dominant reserve currency, and the ground it has given up has been shared among many smaller currencies rather than handed to a single rival.

The currency's value is a separate story: Reserve status moves slowly; exchange rates can move fast. The ICE dollar index fell 9.2% in 2025 — its worst year since 2017 — and by 31 December 2025 it took about $1.174 to buy one euro (Il Sole 24 Ore, 2025).

Gold: the signal from central banks themselves

If you want to know what monetary authorities are worried about, look at what they buy. The World Gold Council reports that central banks added a net 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, after three straight years above 1,000 tonnes — still nearly double the 2010–2021 average of 473 tonnes a year (World Gold Council, 2026). The National Bank of Poland led for the second year running, with 102 tonnes.

In the same year, the LBMA gold price set 53 new all-time highs, and total global gold demand exceeded 5,000 tonnes for the first time (World Gold Council, 2026). The message is not "go buy gold". It is that even the institutions holding the most dollars in the world are diversifying deliberately — without waiting for a crisis to force their hand.

Where the Vietnamese family stands

Currency concentration risk: A typical affluent Vietnamese family holds domestic property, dong deposits and local equities, plus some dollar cash or gold bars for safety. It looks diversified, but most of it still rides on one economy and one currency.

The dong weakened even while the dollar did: The State Bank of Vietnam's central rate moved from 24,334 dong per dollar on 3 January 2025 (Financial & Monetary Market Review) to 25,121 on 31 December 2025 (Financial & Monetary Market Review). The dong lost about 3.2% against the dollar in the very year the dollar itself fell more than 9% against a basket of major currencies. Measured against the euro, the dong's loss of international purchasing power was considerably larger.

Dollar cash is not the whole answer: Many families hold dollars as a lifeboat. That makes sense when the risk sits in the dong, but 2025 showed that the dollar can also lose ground sharply against other currencies. A single lifeboat is still a concentration.

What a multi-currency balance sheet means

A multi-currency balance sheet does not mean moving everything abroad, and it does not mean predicting that the euro will rise. It simply means arranging assets so that the currency of what you own matches the currency of what you will need to pay: children's tuition, healthcare, a home in retirement, and liquidity when something goes wrong.

If your child plans to attend university in Europe, that bill arrives in euros. If the family wants a second base on the Mediterranean, the cost of living there is in euros too. Keeping all your wealth in dong and dollars while your future obligations sit in euros is an implicit currency position — even if nobody in the family ever meant to speculate.

Within that structure, residency and property in a euro economy such as Greece or Cyprus play a distinct role: a real asset priced in euros, rental income in euros, and a residence right that opens options for education and where the family lives. The Greece Golden Visa programme, for example, links residency to property ownership — but its real value lies in how this layer complements the rest of the balance sheet, not in any exchange-rate expectation.

The downsides, stated plainly: property is illiquid, carries meaningful transaction costs and taxes, and the euro can fall against the dollar — as it did for long stretches before 2025. Moving capital abroad must also comply with Vietnam's foreign-exchange rules. That is exactly why it should be one layer, not the whole structure.

A practical strategy for Vietnamese investors

Map your currencies before you buy anything. List your assets by currency, then list your major expenses over the next 10–15 years by currency. The gap between the two lists is your family's real exchange-rate risk.

Diversify by purpose, not by headlines. Gold is insurance, the dollar is global liquidity, the euro matches European obligations. Each layer has a job; don't pile into one just because it has recently gone up.

Treat residency as a risk-reducing asset, not a wager. The right question is "what risk does this residency and this property remove from my total wealth?" — not "how much will the euro rise?"

Move in steps and keep Vietnam at the centre. Most of your wealth and your life can stay in Vietnam. One properly structured foreign-currency layer, set up legally and at the right time, is enough to change the whole family's risk profile.

Frequently asked questions

Does de-dollarisation mean the dollar is about to fall sharply?

Not necessarily. The dollar's share of global reserves has declined slowly over more than two decades and even ticked up in Q1 2026. Exchange rates can move either way, so the sensible defence is diversification rather than a directional bet.

Are gold and dollar cash enough diversification?

They are two useful layers, but not enough on their own. Neither produces income, and neither matches the euro-denominated or other foreign costs a family may face — such as tuition or living expenses abroad.

Is buying property in Greece or Cyprus a bet on the euro?

It shouldn't be seen that way. Currencies can move against you. The value of this layer comes from balancing the balance sheet, generating euro income and opening a residence right — benefits that still matter even if the euro goes nowhere.

NAC strategic insight

The debate over the dollar will run for years, and nobody can say with confidence which currency will come out ahead over the next decade. That is precisely why a Vietnamese family doesn't need the right forecast — it needs a structure that doesn't depend on getting the forecast right. Central banks are doing exactly that: diversifying gradually and with discipline, before they are forced to.

NAC works with Vietnamese families to build a foreign-currency layer of assets and residency — from mapping the family's currency exposure, to comparing European programmes, to choosing a specific project such as Limassol Del Mar in Cyprus. If you'd like to start with a frank conversation about your own balance sheet, book a consultation with NAC.

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