Fig. 01 · AUDContents
The Dong to 2031: 7 Currencies Vietnamese Families Spend Abroad, Measured
A year's tuition of 40,000 Australian dollars costs 714 million dong today. On history since 2000, in 5 years it could be anywhere from 583 million to 1.16 billion.
A year's tuition of 40,000 Australian dollars costs about 714 million dong today. On history since 2000, in 5 years that could be anywhere from 583 million to 1.16 billion dong, before any rise in the fees themselves. Google's forecasting AI didn't beat a "no change" guess on any of the 7 currencies we measured, so the look ahead is read from history, not from the AI.
Source: BIS; NAC calculations
Source: BIS (average rates against the USD, crossed); NAC ran TimesFM 2.5
Issue 1: What the dong bought over 5 years
We took BIS monthly average exchange rates, worked out how many dong it takes to buy 1 US dollar, euro, pound, Australian dollar, Malaysian ringgit, Thai baht and Turkish lira, and averaged them by quarter. These are the 7 currencies Vietnamese families spend most on when children study abroad, when they buy property or when they apply for residency.
From Q2 2021 to Q2 2026, a US dollar became 8.5% dearer, from 23,168 to 25,134 dong. The ringgit rose 12.0%, the euro 4.7%, the baht 4.5% and the pound 4.2%. The Australian dollar barely moved, at about 17,848 dong. The Turkish lira fell 80.0%, from 2,760 to 552 dong.
In other words, the dong weakens slowly and steadily against the US dollar but has held up well against the Australian dollar and the baht. Against the lira, the dong is by far the stronger currency.
Issue 2: Can Google's AI forecast exchange rates?
We hid the latest 8 quarters, from Q2 2024, and let TimesFM 2.5 forecast them blind, as in our NAC Lab test on house prices. It had to beat 2 simple rules: hold the last rate flat, or extend the latest 4-quarter trend.
It beat both on none of the 7 currencies, and holding the rate flat alone beat it on 5. Over the 2-year test the Australian dollar rose 11.9% against the dong while the AI forecast a 3.5% fall; the lira fell 26.1% and the AI forecast a 52.3% drop.
Over the 2-year test, Google's AI forecast exchange rates no better than assuming they stay flat.
That isn't surprising. Economists have long known exchange rates are hard to forecast, and "next quarter looks like this one" is usually the hardest guess to beat.
Issue 3: The next 5 years, on history
We took all 86 five-year windows since 2000, measured how much each currency rose or fell against the dong in each, and applied the middle, low (the cut-off for the lowest 10% of windows) and high (the highest 10%) outcomes to today's rate. These are history-based scenarios, not forecasts.
The US dollar has never become cheaper against the dong over any 5-year window. Its middle case is 8.1% dearer by Q2 2031, within 4.9% to 28.0%. The euro's middle case is 11.5% dearer, but in 26% of windows the euro got cheaper. The pound fell in 36% of windows and the Australian dollar in 42%, giving them the widest ranges: the Australian dollar from 18.3% cheaper to 62.4% dearer.
On history since 2000, a year's tuition of 40,000 Australian dollars could cost 583 million to 1.16 billion dong in 5 years.
The lira fell against the dong in 77% of 5-year windows, with a middle case of 42.2% down. Buyers under Turkey's citizenship-by-investment route usually pay in US dollars, so what matters is the home's price in dollars, not in lira.
Issue 4: How families with children studying abroad can prepare
Budget tuition in dong as a range, not a number. For the Australian dollar, the gap between the low and high cases after 5 years is about 576 million dong for every 40,000-dollar year.
Convert gradually, not all at once. Spreading the exchange over the years before your child leaves makes the average rate depend less on any single moment.
Keep part of your assets in the currency you will spend. Savings held in Australian dollars, pounds or euros carry no exchange-rate risk when the fees fall due.
Assets abroad can pay part of the bill. A rental flat in the city where your child studies earns rent in the same currency – for a family with a child in Malaysia, something like Pavilion Square in Kuala Lumpur.
Frequently asked questions
Why doesn't NAC use AI to forecast exchange rates?
Because in the 2-year test, Google's AI beat neither the flat rule nor the trend rule on any currency. Scenarios from 86 historical windows show the full range, which is more honest than a single number.
Does 583 million to 1.16 billion dong include rising fees?
No. It shows only the exchange-rate effect on 40,000 Australian dollars; fees in Australian dollars usually rise each year too.
Has the dong ever strengthened against the US dollar?
Quarter to quarter, yes. But over 5-year windows since 2000, the US dollar has never become cheaper against the dong.
NAC strategic insight
The exchange rate is the biggest hidden cost for a family sending children abroad or preparing to move, and nobody can forecast it – Google's AI included. The surest approach is to plan for the whole range: convert gradually, hold assets in the currency you will spend, and choose assets abroad that pay an income. To work through your family's study or residency plan this way, book a consultation with NAC.
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